Arrias on the Holiday: Admiral Claus and His Sleigh
We all know that NORAD (The North American Air Defense Command) traces Santa every year. But, here at the Special Compartmented Operations and Tracking Center Hypo (SCOTCH) we have been working a special program, (known locally as “Project Single Malt”) to develop a better idea of what we are really looking at when we consider Santa Claus and his sleigh.
As an overall assessment, the anecdotal reporting suggests that the aircrew is an extreme professional as there has never been – in decades of operation around the world in the most adverse conditions, any indication of a flight mishap. But this leads to some conjecture. Aircrew of that capability must be getting substantial amounts of flight time. Estimates for that level of sustained performance suggest 35 to 40 hours per month.
Further, while NORAD has suggested that this may be only one fabulously capable vehicle, that would require such astounding capabilities that we suspect that in fact there is a principle vehicle that NORAD tracks, but that this is more a head-fake than anything else. Rather, we estimate that there are perhaps 100 vehicles that are engaged in the operation, under the command of this Santa Claus. (Of note, one of our deep cover agents reports that he goes by the title “Admiral” among his own people, though the aircrew refer to him as “Big Red.” Apparently Non-aircrew NEVER refer to him as Big Red.)
But this leads to other issues: if there are 100 aircrew (that number includes Admiral Claus), and they are getting 35 hours per month, and they are never detected except on Christmas, and if we assume each training sortie is several hours long, that would mean some 1,200 sorties flown per month which have remained undetected for decades. Accordingly, these vehicles must possess truly state of the art stealth technology as well as infra-read suppression technology that masks the 8 x Reindeer engines (or 9, as the case may be).
Propulsion: the vehicle – or vehicles – are powered by 8 – or 9 – engines. There is some disagreement here among the analysts, with some insisting that “Rudolf” is a guidance and navigation system while others maintain that it provides guidance and navigation as well as propulsion. This is one of those areas where we do not have enough evidence to make a call, and that remains an open question. There is also speculation that “Rudolph” is the Guidance and Navigation System and “Red Nose” (see below) is a variant that was developed for special operations. Again, we are working to clarify that question. But, the Reindeer engines leave us with a great many questions, as our IR tracking is virtually non-existent, they have never been observed to leave contrails, and their efficiency has to be nothing short of magical, as they can apparently fly for more than 24 hours without refueling, at high speed, carrying substantial payloads.
Also, as is widely known, the vehicles are true VTOL capable, yet, we assume there is also some sort of hover capability that allows associated special operations elements to descend from the vehicle and deliver packages – while the vehicle hovers – silently. How exactly a SOF element could hang beneath, for example, an F-35 remains another intelligence gap, a very large information gap that we are seeking to fill. Also, these vehicles are very large yet, they can land on a small roof and then lift off and the houses are never damaged. There is as yet no speculation as to how that is managed.
As for guidance and navigation, the majority opinion is that the Red Nose Guidance and Navigation system (RNGN) is an integrated guidance, navigation and engine control system, and it is confirmed to have a number of remarkable performance specifications: specifically, it is known to have at least 4 billion waypoints and has, reportedly, never made an error. It is also integrated with the Package Delivery System (PDS) and while it has been operating for decades, has also, repeatedly never made a mistake in target generation. An inside source revealed that targets are portioned into two major categories: Naughty and Nice, and that there has never been a case of the PDS incorrectly filing one with the other, or of delivering the wrong “Package” to a given target.
As you can see, it is a remarkable vehicle, but we have a great many intelligence gaps that require more research. We are hoping for several million dollars in COVID funding to be diverted our way to assist in the research.
More findings next year…
Merry Christmas!
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Freedom of the Seas
How much trade is carried by ship? Perhaps as much as $20 trillions worth as it turns out. On any given day there is more than $100 billion worth of international trade moving on the world’s oceans. In 2021, the last year with complete figures, 11 billion tons of goods, 80% of all world trade by volume, to include 851 million containers (TEUs), were moved by sea. US trade carried at sea exceeds $2 trillion.
And the Babel Mandeb? The “Gate of Lamentation” that marks the southern end of the Red Sea? Some 17,000 ships transit the Babel Mandeb in 2020 (last year I could find numbers), 6.2 million barrels of oil per day.
It all goes normally with little fanfare and very little worry. Despite talk about piracy and all that sort of thing, 99% of the world’s oceans are quite pirate free. Nor is there any real impending threat. Nor has there been one since the end of World War II. The world has enjoyed 78 years of unbroken freedom of the seas. It is an achievement unparalleled in history except for several centuries when Roman ships traveled around “Mare Nostrum” – literally “Our Sea” as the Romans referred to the Mediterranean Sea.
And why have the seas been so “free?”
Because the US Navy made it so.
But, Freedom of the Seas is not a given.
Consider the Red Sea again: things have been a little exciting in the Red Sea of late. There have been multiple attacks by Houthi rebels against shipping in the Red Sea, missiles, drones fired at various ships, small boats attacking other ships, helicopters landing a party of soldiers on one ship and seizing it.
Meanwhile, the US Navy and several allies, have been doing what Great Power navies have done for 200 years: they are maintaining sea control. The Royal Navy did it in the 1800s, the US Navy took up the mantle after World War I. And kept the sea lanes open. USS Carney and USS Mason, demonstrating some valuable American technology, have swatted down a number of missiles and drones.
It is worth noting that that other great power with a large navy – Communist China – is not keeping the sea lanes open. I am sure they have lots of excuses why, perhaps beginning with “The US is doing a fine job” (though I doubt they’d be so complimentary), and ending with “we’re busy terrorizing Philippine fishermen.” But the simple fact is that they aren’t. And anyone who thinks that they will fill in if the US Navy were to step aside is delusional. They won’t.
For 200 years freedom of the high seas has been guaranteed by only 2 navies – the Royal Navy and the US Navy. No one else has ever shown the least predisposition to do anything of the kind – unless the US Navy or the Royal Navy started it.
So, when folks start wondering why the US needs a navy first and foremost among its services, and why we, as a nation, need to fix our shipbuilding, they need to begin – not with joint warfare or needs of all the combatant commanders or any of that sort of thing, they need to begin with strategic presence and sea control. And from there they need to consider trade and US economic stability, shipping our grains and goods to people around the world. All that happens – at low cost – because of Freedom of the Seas.
And Freedom of the Seas is what the US Navy does.
As for what we should do about the Houthis, there is a tried and true answer. Send one of our aircraft carriers into the Red Sea and let them fly several hundred strike sorties against Houthi bases along the Red Sea coast. Pound them into rubble. This is where it would be nice to have a big gun ship or two: “park it” off the coast and let it pound the targets for a few days. Let it be seen by people sitting on the beach. After the targets have been pounded for a few days, land a battalion of Marines and have them sweep through the area.
Then leave. And leave the area a smoking ruin. Do not repair it. It’s broken and we aren’t paying for it. Sail back over the horizon. If the Houthis do something else, return.
The distinction here has to be crystal clear to all involved: if they want to mess about with their own country, fine. But if they come out to sea, if they come out into the international waters and threaten to upset the apple cart, they will be punished. Once they are punished, we will leave. If they then behave, we won’t return. If they act up, we will return and repeat.
As for other folks who want to stir the pot, nations like Iran, that might send ships to help, etc., once this has started they get one warning: withdraw. If they don’t, sink the next Iranian ship that heads that way. Don’t make it anything more than that: a clear signal to keep away.
This is not subtle; subtle signals always are misread but the other side. But it is clear. And again, we aren’t going to invade, not in any grand sense. We will act to keep the sea lanes open and safe, if we need to we will conduct a raid or two. The message is clear: Behave. And leave the sea lanes alone.
It’s what great power naval forces do.
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias and his Muse: In the Fog
Author’s Note: He was just sitting up there in the tree this morning – 2nd morning appearance this week. But before I went out he was hooting quite a bit – I looked it up – definitely a Great Horned Owl’s call…ArriasInline image
Early morning, a dense, warm fog,
The sky still black as pitch,
Out with the dogs in silent dawn,
Air is still, not a branch does twitch.
A distinctive noise, that particular hoot,
The call is clear and pure,
Not just any, a Great Horned Owl,
Tis such an owl to be sure,
That strange noise, that eerie noise,
Cuts through that blanket, thick and gray,
The Great Horned Owl in his perch,
On watch, ere the break of day.
I wave the light at the wood,
The fog is thick but I see the fellow,
He sits alone, high up in the tree,
His eyes seem to glow a brilliant yellow,
I slowly walk, can just barely see,
He turns his head to follow,
Great Horned Owl on the hunt,
Pre-dawn at foggy Dog Hollow.
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias and His Muse: Bulldogs, Soccer, and Foreign Policy
Author’s Note: It just seems to me we could get so much more done if we had folks who paid attention…
– Arrias
One of the marvelous scenes in the movie Man For All Seasons has Thomas More talking to his friend the Duke of Norfolk, about More’s refusal to endorse the King’s divorce of Catherine, or his marriage to Anne Boleyn. In the dialogue that follows there are more comments on the English nobility’s apathy to their religion, but its fascination with the material world:
“The English nobility, my Lord, would have snored through the Sermon on the Mount. But you’ll labor like scholars over a bulldog’s pedigree.”
He might have been speaking of American academicians or the experts at Foggy Bottom, even worse, the journalists of the modern media.
Two weeks ago there was summit in the Mid East, with some countries – Iran in particular – pushing for, among other things, refusing to allow the US to remove any munitions or arms stockpiled in their countries if the weapons might be transferred to Israel, as well as threatening an oil embargo – a la 1973. Saudi Arabia held its ground, the summit issued what was labeled a watered-down statement by the press, but basically, Saudi Arabia said “No” as did Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Sudan and the UAE. The key country in all that was Saudi Arabia, whose leadership insisted on what might be called a more balanced approach. If they had folded, who knows what might have happened.
Given how poorly the US has dealt with the Saudis over the past two years, that was substantially more than we should have expected.
But was it really unanticipated? A surprise? No. In fact, it should have been understood. If the State Department, the DC think tank academicians, and the press were paying attention, it would have been something the US might have been better positioned to both support and reward.
Why is that? Consider this development, one that might have been appropriately recognized to great effect, if Foggy Bottom, or the Pentagon, or the press had bothered to pay attention.
On October 2nd this year, the Saudi soccer team Al Ittihad, was in Isfahan, Iran to play Sepahan FC at Naghsh-e Jahan stadium. But the Saudis withdrew from the game just as play was about start. Why? Because there was a bust of Qasem Soleimani, the dead former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force right next to the field. You remember him, he was killed by a hellfire missile on January 3rd, 2020.
To the Saudis, and to most of the Arab world, he was, and still is, the embodiment of evil, a terrorist of the worst sort, who did more to destabilize the Middle East than virtually any other single man.
The Saudis walked off the field, passing the bust, refusing to play at a field that honored Soleimani.
The Saudi soccer team’s action was not only exemplary, it was an opportunity that we, as allies of the Saudis and as de facto leader of the international community, concerned about stability in the Middle East, should have gone after like a dog going after bone.
Instead, the event was mainly covered on sports pages. It certainly didn’t receive a public “Attaboy” from any senior US government officials. Wouldn’t that have been handy? Would it have been worth it to raise that issue in any discussions? Would it have been a good thing if we had recognized the Saudi soccer players and their stand-up behavior and thanked them for their moral courage?
Especially since 5 days later Hamas attacked Israel and everything started going sideways. Wouldn’t it have been nice to have built up just a little extra good will in the region?
Apparently not.
Was the Saudi action even covered in the daily briefs at Foggy Bottom or the Pentagon? Did the intelligence community notice? Did the CIA or the ODNI slip it into the President’s daily brief? Was the CentCom Commander told and made to appreciate the import and then did he pick up the phone and call the Saudi Chief of the General Staff and tell him “well done?”
Perhaps all that happened. But I would bet not.
Meanwhile, the illuminati at Foggy Bottom are probably wrestling over their bulldog pedigrees…
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Just War
In an early version of his 2nd Inaugural Address, Abraham Lincoln wrote of the Civil War that that: “…each party claims to act in accordance with the will of God. Both may be, and one must be wrong.”
In his eloquent, spare style Lincoln reduced Just War theory down to a single line.
There are currently two wars ongoing in the world that seem to have grabbed all the headlines, in Gaza, and in Ukraine. There are other wars going on, as well – Yemen, Syria, several spots across Northern Africa, from Somalia to the Ivory Coast, a civil war in Ethiopia (currently mostly quiet)), the Rohingya genocide in Burma, etc.
Most of these rarely receive any news coverage as the press plays “little kids soccer,” following the “ball” rather than covering their part of the field. In fact, the press seems to have a hard time covering both Ukraine and Gaza, and at the same time, the coverage of Gaza has been, for the most part, sophomoric.
All of these wars are producing casualties. The fighting in Burma, for example, has produced more than 10,000 killed so far this year, the Tigray civil war has “only” resulted in perhaps 3,000 killed this year, but since it started in 2018 has resulted in perhaps 500,000 killed.
One of the curious features of the two most prominent wars is how the bulk of the media have seemingly changed their tunes, supporting Ukraine and insisting Ukraine by right and necessity should keep fighting, but then switching to peaceniks in the next breath, almost immediately calling for a truce in Gaza.
Both were attacked, both have seen their citizens become the victims of atrocious, evil behavior. Ukraine saw more than 600 people tortured, raped and killed in Bucha, Israel more than 1,000 at the festival and kibbutzim in the Negev. As a matter of scale, though attaching scales to atrocities is treacherous ground – evil is evil, Israel with between 1/3rd and 1/4th the population of Ukraine, has the worst of it.
Both people are also the victims of much greater atrocities during the 20th century, 6 million Jews killed in the Holocaust, between 5 and 10 million Ukrainians killed in the Holodomor – Ukrainian for “kill by hunger” – Stalin’s effort to wipe out any independence movement in Ukraine during the early 1930s. Of course, neither holds a candle to Communist China for sheer butchery, but who can?
Both nations found themselves pushed into war; in the modern understanding of Just War, both were responding to an attack and were justified in responding to the attack.
But, what about now, now that they are engaged in the war?
There are multiple criteria that must be met when trying to assess that any war, as it is being waged, is just. But, perhaps the two most important are these:
1) Is it reasonable to presume that the war, as it is being waged, is going to lead to some better outcome? The outcome does not need to be “victory,” but whatever it is, further fighting will lead to an improved situation – a better peace, a safer world, etc.
And 2): Is continued fighting evil or not evil? That is, does continuing the war mean less total evil than the evil that is being fought?
It is immediately obvious that both of these are subjective evaluations. There is no universal yardstick that can be applied that shows that one course of action garners 9.5 goodness points and the other only 9.0 points. Opposing sides are always going to come up with different assessments as to “better results,” better ends. As Lincoln implies, both sides will claim God is on their side, though, clearly God cannot be on both sides.
As for weighing different evils, that is, if anything more difficult.
And more to the point, what does that have to do with the US?
Well, that is what the US State Department should be doing in Gaza. And in Kiev. Honestly, that’s its job. As the representative of the US, and as the US is the major power in the region, the US is the one party that has standing to weigh in with Israel as to the right time to stop.
That is an appropriate position for the US, as the major power in the region and as Israel’s ally, to hold that discussion with Israel. Note, if the US doesn’t want to be a major power in the region, then it needs to leave. But right now it is the major power, and it is Israel’s ally. Both come with real responsibilities.
At the same time, and the State Department and DOD need to remember that they are supposed to be pursuing US interests, not Israeli interests.
Thing is, the US should be doing the exact same thing with Ukraine. Yet we have been told again and again, that the US will not do any such thing. The White House and the State Department and the Pentagon (and a number of other department secretaries) have all said that it’s up to Ukraine to determine when the war should stop.
But such an argument misses both of the above elements of Just War. It is the responsibility of the senior figures in the administration to evaluate whether the Ukrainian effort, as with the Israeli effort, should be throttled back or not, and the criteria are readily provided: is their a chance of success, and is the end more or less evil.
It is, nevertheless, interesting that we’re seeking to restrain the Israelis even as they appear to be making headway, while we seemingly give Ukraine a carte blanche as the war stagnates. Shashank Joshi, formerly a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, and now the senior military columnist with the Economist, suggests that for the next offensive to succeed, as the one that started last June did not, the Ukrainian army has to provide more training to combat forces.
That means more units will need to be pulled off the line, for longer periods, which translates into a 2024 that will need to be a year on the defensive, looking forward to a second, more capable offensive in 2025. And he notes that even with additional training and adequate amounts of ammunition advanced weaponry, such an offensive will probably not liberate Crimea.
Said differently, an effort to hold an offensive in 2024 will probably fail, and may fail badly.
And given that during the 18 month period between now and that next offensive, Russia would continue to “have a vote” on what happens on the battlefield, as well as what else might happen around the world, is it reasonable to assume that continuing the fight in Ukraine is going to lead to a clearly better result? If cold, clear analysis clearly says yes, and it serves US interests, fine.
But, if not?
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Winter in the Dismal Swamp
Author’s Note: Cold and gray here – winter in the Tidewater – the dogs are looking for warm spots…
Cold and gray, a north wind blows,
Dry leaves tumble across the yard,
A line of gold marks the dawn,
But brown and dead the sward.
Turn my back to the wind,
It’s cold, and hard the bite,
The dogs hurry to finish their tasks,
The day grows slowly light.
Hurry inside, it’s warm and calm,
A mug of tea, feed the hounds
Turn up the fire, keep away the cold,
Wind still blows, chilling sounds.
Inside now a cheery light,
But outside gray and brown – no pomp,
We’ll stay inside and keep warm,
Winter come to the Dismal Swamp.
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Thanksgiving
If you ever get the chance to visit Plymouth Plantation, the re-creation of the town of Plymouth, circa 1631, that sits just outside of present Plymouth, Mass, I highly encourage it. It has been years since I have been but I remember going late in the year – a raw November day, the wind coming off Cape Cod Bay. If you make your way towards the south end of the small town there is a spot where you can stand and look out onto the bay and see nothing but trees and the bay – no sign of 21st century life – no sign of even 17th century life. It is a view that the first Puritans would have seen had they wandered just a short distance from their first encampment, what the hunters among them would have seen. In December 1620 they would have seen that view, and recognized that they were months and months away from any civilized life – they were alone.
To give some idea of their situation, it had taken 65 days on Mayflower – after a difficult start. They had begun as two ships: Speedwell and Mayflower. But Speedwell had been taking on water and after two attempts, they had turned back when 300 miles out of Devon. Both ships returned to Devon, transferred several of the crew and passengers to Mayflower, and on September 16th, 1620 (Gregorian calendar), they headed west.
The Mayflower was not a speedy vessel. Exact specifications aren’t known, but it is believed to have been no more than 90 feet long (“on the deck”) and about 180 – 200 gross tons. Gross tons is measure of the interior of the ship, 1 gross ton being 100 cubic feet. So, the interior space of the ship was less than 20,000 cubic feet. That equates to the interior space of a 2,500 square foot house – a normal, 3 bedroom house.
With 102 passengers and 37 crew. Try squeezing 139 people into your house. Now rock it back and forth… for a couple of months…
The Pilgrims had moved aboard ship in July, as they thought they would be able to depart in summer. But they had problems, particularly with Speedwell. So, by the time they finally headed west in September they have lived on this small ship for nearly two months.
Other conditions: Sleep on the crowded decks. Meals were simple: salted beef, dried biscuits, and beer. Hygiene? I’ll leave that to your imagination.
And then there was the passage. The weather was poor for perhaps the voyage, one man was washed overboard but miraculously grabbed a halyard as he went over and was pulled back aboard. One man died en route, and one baby was born. Mayflower was not a speed demon but to make matters worse, poor weather several times during the voyage forced the master to simply drop sail and ride out high seas and winds. You have seen pictures of Mayflower with the high stern – that was deliberate; a ship such as Mayflower could drop all sails, lash the helm up so that the rudder is amidships (lined up fore and aft) and the wind would catch the high stern and swing it around and the ship would point straight into the wind and seas. Of course, the ship would then pitch up and down and those inside weren’t having a very good day, but they survived.
During the voyage a main beam broke and they used “a large screw” – probably some sort of screw jack for a printing press or perhaps an apple press – to push the beam back into place.
They finally arrived off Cape Cod after a passage of 65 days, sighting the eastern shore of Cape Cod on November 19th. They spent two days trying to sail around the Cape to the south, but after seeing the shoal water off Cape Malabar (Monomoy Island) and the shoals to its south, and Nantucket Island, they turned north and came inside Cape Cod Bay and anchored at Cape Cod Hook – what is now Provincetown harbor – on November 21st.
Shortly before they anchored, however, they did something that changed the course of history, something that makes this all very much worth remembering, and worth saying Thank You to the Pilgrims, and to God for dropping us here; they signed the Mayflower Compact – probably drafted by William Brewster (in 20th century English):
IN THE NAME OF GOD, AMEN. We, whose names are underwritten, the Loyal Subjects of our dread Sovereign Lord King James, by the Grace of God, of Great Britain, France, and Ireland, King, Defender of the Faith, &c. Having undertaken for the Glory of God, and Advancement of the Christian Faith, and the Honour of our King and Country, a Voyage to plant the first Colony in the northern Parts of Virginia; Do by these Presents, solemnly and mutually, in the Presence of God and one another, covenant and combine ourselves together into a civil Body Politick, for our better Ordering and Preservation, and Furtherance of the Ends aforesaid: And by Virtue hereof do enact, constitute, and frame, such just and equal Laws, Ordinances, Acts, Constitutions, and Offices, from time to time, as shall be thought most meet and convenient for the general Good of the Colony; unto which we promise all due Submission and Obedience.
IN WITNESS whereof we have hereunto subscribed our names at Cape-Cod the eleventh of November, in the Reign of our Sovereign Lord King James, of England, France, and Ireland, the eighteenth, and of Scotland the fifty-fourth, Anno Domini; 1620.
The Compact is a simple document, just a few sentences long, but it is the sentence which I set in italics (Do by these Presents…) which is of note, for it marks the first time in history that a group of people set up a government, as the writer Rebecca Fraser described it:
Plymouth Colony was the first experiment in consensual government in Western history between individuals with one another, and not with a monarch. The colony was a mutual enterprise, not an imperial expedition organized by the Spanish or English governments. In order to survive, it depended on the consent of the colonists themselves. Necessary in order to bind the community together, it was revolutionary by chance.
As for the rest of it, it is worth noting that the weather was bitterly cold, as it can be on the New England coast in winter. They spent several weeks exploring the coastline of Cape Cod Bay, and finally settled on a spot near present-day Plymouth, Massachusetts and Mayflower dropped anchor in that harbor on December 16th, and everyone could finally go ashore; they began building a common house, which was completed on January 19th, a 20 x 20 foot building.
Conditions were miserable, 31 died by the end of February, 55 total by the end of March, as well as half the ship’s crew.
Most folks won’t read this until after they have their turkey, I suppose, but I thought I would remind all of what we all know but never think about – just how hard off the Puritans had it – and what they gave us.
It wasn’t the first Thanksgiving in the New World, Jamestown has that honor – or perhaps St. Augustine. 240 years later Lincoln enshrined it. But it was these few poor wanderers who pushed a philosophical pebble down the hill – the experiment continues to this day. But it was a small group of social misfits, seeking religions freedom, who started it all. That is worth giving thanks for…
Happy Thanksgiving!
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: But the Trains Ran On Time
Author’s Note: This whole thing just makes my head feel like it’s about to explode….Arrias
In 1942, a short while after the US landed in North Africa, several US soldiers were convicted of raping a local woman. They were tried and found guilty. The commanding general – George Patton, approved their sentence and had them hung. As harsh as that may sound to some, that is what civilized armies do in wartime. They do not terrorize the locals, they do not rape or loot, they do not murder innocent civilians. They do not torture prisoners.
Do innocents get killed? Yes, they do. Sadly, a lot of them get killed if you end up in a total war, a war fought to remove another government. That is one reason you avoid wars if at all possible – they are horrible things. And sometimes even in the best armies some soldiers will go too far – and they commit crimes. And then they are tried.
But all that hasn’t exactly slowed down humanity in fighting wars. If you just include the major civilizations for the last 6,000 years, there have been fewer than 250 years in history where there wasn’t a war someplace. And if you include smaller civilizations and the hundreds of woodland and plains tribes from the steppes of Russia to Africa to the Americas, that number rapidly goes to zero.
So? So, this past week there was a story about people on some social media commenting on the letter Osama bin Laden wrote in November of 2002 explaining why he was attacking the US. The various “cognoscenti” then encourage everyone to “read the letter,” that it is “illuminating.”
I first read the letter shortly after it came out. Osama wasn’t new to anyone who had spent any time in the Mid East or was in any way associated with the US intelligence community or the US military. But I went back and read it again this week, as it has probably been more than a decade since I last read it.
Several things strike me, though I won’t go into a point by point commentary as it would take too long.
Without getting into the badly skewed history he relates, there’s a glaring problem with his harangue – it comes to this: either you are the very first occupant of a piece of land, or you are a Muslim – all other occupants of a piece of land are wrong.
The problem with that, of course, is that the history of mankind is one of conquest. Folks who want to rush to give Plymouth Rock back to the Algonquin need to take a hard look at who was in Plymouth first. The never-ending wars of the American Indians is an unbroken string of raids and counter raids, millennia of looting and burning of villages, of taking of slaves, of raping of women. Before Hamas was gang raping women, so were the Comanche. And no one needed to teach it to them. Long before the first European arrived in the Western Hemisphere all that was talking place. Same in China, same in India and SE Asia, and Africa. No corner of the globe has a pass on that sort of evil behavior.
It has only been in the last millennia that there has been any serious effort at all to stop some of that behavior and that only by a small number of countries. Yes, before that, everyone has some sort of document on “just war,“ but it was rarely taken seriously, at least in regard to how the enemy and how civilians were to be treated. And even then, the record has not been unblemished. Consider the Red Coats raping and burning and looting their way the length of Long Island in 1776. And today, in much of the world, that sort of thing continues. Jump “all the way” back to World War II and the Russians sweeping into Eastern Europe and raping and burning as they advanced. What about the Japanese in Nanking? Or Manila? Or jump forward to today. Take a quick look at the Tigray War – a half a million dead, with both sides accused of thousands of war crimes, of rapine and plunder in little towns across Ethiopia. I’m sure social media covered the Tigray war in detail…
And the Iran – Iraq War??? Use of chemical weapons, towns burned, civilians raped and murdered…
So, what Hamas did is how most armies or raiders act. But not in the West, not the US, not Israel, not the IDF. But apparently it is okay to Osama. And Hamas. And the social media intelligentsia who suddenly found Osama’s letter.
Fascinating that the various folks on social media – all Westerners, most of them I dare say, quite progressive, seemingly agreeing with Osama as he talks about, in fact, implementing Sharia. You know, the way it is implemented in Afghanistan today: women don’t go to school, don’t hold jobs, don’t appear outside the house unless covered head to foot, and with a chaperone. That version of Sharia.
He comments on the enforcement of UN sanctions against Iraq, blaming the US for the ills inflicted on the Iraqi people because of those sanctions. Never mind that Saddam Hussein was the one dropping chemical weapons on Kurds or burning the homes of the marsh Arabs. Or what about Assad in Syria killing his own people at Hama?
He goes on to comment that the citizens of the US support the US government and that therefore American people are not innocent. Therefore American citizens are legitimate targets. And so, by extension, are the women who were raped and then mutilated in Israel. All legitimate, all something that the erudite social media hounds are, I am sure, well versed in.
Of course, if that is so, then can’t Israelis legitimately bomb Gaza and kill civilians, as the people of Gaza support Hamas?
But no. The Israelis aren’t radical Muslims.
Because that really is Osama’s argument: if you are Muslim you allowed to do anything to take and keep terrain. If you are not Muslim, you need to surrender and become Muslim or suffer the consequences. This is the Islam of the Taliban, that’s what is being proposed.
Meanwhile, for all who think Osama bin Laden’s polemics are of note, I would encourage you to take a look at a couple of famous politicians who were powerful speakers – you know, perhaps Hitler. Or Mussolini; after all, he made the trains run on time. I’m sure someone will upload their speeches on some social media platform.
And when you are done, go look up the word “sophistry.”
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Emalia
The reason an heroic movie, an heroic character, attracts us is simple: vicariously, we become heroes. Whatever the scenario, we place ourselves in it – Ben Hur in the galley, the homesteaders on the high plains, or perhaps Schindler saving his workers at “Emalia.” At the same time, we know we’ll never have to actually do most of these things under any circumstance whatsoever. The Comanches are not raiding any towns in suburban America, none of us is likely to end up pulling an oar for the Roman Consul.
Strange, though… What about that Jewish thing?
There are currently a bit more than 15 million Jews world-wide. Almost 6 million are here in the US, about 8 million in Israel. There are perhaps 8 other countries that hold most of the rest: Canada, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, Brazil, Argentina, Australia. Beyond that, there are small communities scattered around the world, but they are small communities.
In the 1930s there were more than 9 million Jews in Europe. Hitler and the Nazis killed more than 6 million Jews. He wanted to kill all of them. In case anyone wonders what genocide looks like, that is genocide. There is ZERO chance that this is some hoax. There is, tragically, mountains of proof of this horror, not “evidence,” not something to be debated, proof. It happened, like “the sun came up yesterday.”
There is no issue to debate. I bring this up because in a poll released this past week, some 23% of US citizens between the ages of 19 and 39 say the holocaust never took place. (Note: One in ten think the Jews perpetrated the Holocaust. The depth of incompetence to be found in American education is difficult to plumb.)
When World War II ended somewhere between 2/3rds and 3/4ths of the surviving Jews of Europe went to the Mid East, to land called Palestine, controlled by the British, the Mandate of Palestine. They took it over after the Ottoman Empire collapsed. The Ottomans had ruled it – think “occupy,” think “absolute dictatorship,” for almost 500 years. Before that? A whole host of empires, ruled by a long string of absolute rulers, none of whom really gave a tinker’s damn about who lived anywhere, or what they called themselves. And that list stretches back into time as far as you care to go.
But there was always a Jewish community in the area, back through at least 1,500 BC. Even during the Babylonian exile there still remained a small Jewish community.
And the Palestinians? Despite recent reworking of history, Palestine for more than 2,000 years was not much more than a place on the map. The closest thing to “Palestinians” were the Philistines, who are now believed to be mainly Greek in origin, immigrants from late Bronze Age Greece, about the time of the Trojan War. In the intervening millennia all sorts of armies and peoples flowed across the region, occupying, besieging, looting, burning, and moving on. About the only group that always remained was the small, tightly knit Jewish community. Very little else was constant.
As for the Palestinians, there are roughly the same number of Palestinians as Jews, world wide, some 15 million. Most of them are located in the immediate vicinity of Israel – in Israel, Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. But, the rationale that they deserve their own country is lacking. Why do they, any more than any other tribe in the Arab world, deserve a nation?
It’s worth noting that they’ve identified as Palestinians since the early 1800s, a far shorter period time than most other tribes in the Arab world. Except for the fact that they represent a means to attack the Jewish state, there seems to be no reason to support a Palestinians state any more than providing a state to any of the scores of other – older – tribes and clans in the Arab world.
And speaking against it is the widespread support of the demonstrably barbarous political movement that is Hamas. But that does highlight something… It seems as if most major newspapers – with a few exceptions – has called for a ceasefire, and negotiations, and has argued some sort of moral equivalence between the actions of Hamas and the actions of the Israeli Defense Force. So, just ask yourself how many leaflets did Hamas drop before they crossed the border? How many announcements and public delays before they began raiding? How many Israeli civilians were provided medical care by Hamas?
78 years ago the Allies liberated Germany and Poland and Czechoslovakia and found the remains of the Nazi death camps. The horror of those camps made it clear that there needed to be real change. The Allies, as the leaders of the Untied Nations, agreed the nations of the world needed to provide European Jews a land to call their own. Never Again wasn’t and isn’t so much a message among the people of Israel, from one Jew to another, it’s a message to the rest of the world that all of us must ensure that this will not happen again.
Yet here were are, 78 years later, and we’re hearing calls for wiping Israel off the map, calls for killing Jews, calls for barbarism of the most extreme kind – on the streets of our cities. And while such calls always exist among extreme groups, these calls should receive virulent condemnation from every corner of the globe. But they have not. Instead, the press covers these “mostly peaceful demonstrations” without comment while printing death tolls from Gaza that are utter fiction, in an effort to shock the gullible into accepting some sort of moral equivalence.
What Hamas has done, what the progressive academicians have done, the left-leaning press, what the leaders of far too many countries across the planet have done, to include far too many politicians in the US and other Western countries, is to show why there must be an Israel. After the sheer evil and horror of the holocaust, just 3 generations have passed and among our “elites” “Never Forget” has become “Huh?” After such a display, there is no reason the Jewish people ought to trust anyone else to defend them.
Folks go to the movies and they like to think they might do what Mr. Schindler did. Now is the time to stand up and do your best imitation.
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com
Arrias: Ship’s Surgeon
I recall thinking he looked old and frail. I was 14, it was my freshman year in high school and I remember him sitting there, on one of the love seats that my mom and dad had in the den, between the dining room and the living room, in that beautiful house we lived in on Centre Street… He sat facing the windows, I think there might have been a fire in the fireplace to his right, but it had faded, he sat with his hands in his lap and talked, almost no emotion, speaking quietly, in very close control of his emotions, as if to let the littlest hint of his feeling out would be to lose it all, and he would burst.
I was only 14 and yet I understood that, it was that clear.
He was a man of “ferocious intellect.” In fact, they were all men of “ferocious intellect.” I steal that line from Richard Dreyfuss, a fantastic actor who used it to describe another fabulous actor: Robert Shaw. I bring them up because the two men are, oddly, connected to the men I remember.
As virtually the entire world knows – or at least that part that watches movies – the two men were, along with Roy Scheider – the central figures in one of the great movies: JAWS. It is in one of the most gripping scenes in movie-making history that they connect to the subject I want to write about today. The scene, of course, is the moment when Quint, the cranky and slightly crazy shark-hunter, played to perfection by Shaw, tells Hooper (Dreyfuss) and the Sheriff (Scheider) about the scar on his forearm – where he had removed a tattoo that read: USS INDIANAPOLIS.
The man that I recall is Captain Lewis “Lew” Haynes, who in 1945 was a Lieutenant Commander and ship’s surgeon onboard the USS INDIANAPOLIS.
There is too much to tell the whole story, and much of it has been written down over the years as the survivors were all interviewed, and I encourage you to read the books, search for the stories on line. As it turned out, eventually, Capt. McVay, the commanding officer, court martialed by the Navy, was exonerated, but none of that changes the story itself, and the horror that nearly 900 sailors faced in the sea.
Capt. Haynes and my dad and a few of their friends were a core of perhaps a dozen surgeons in the Navy, there was another similar group into the Army, who in the the years between the end of WWII and Vietnam helped develop the treatment protocols for burns. They were all men of ferocious intellect.
Three of them served on cruisers as ship’s surgeon during World War II, as lieutenants or lieutenant commanders, though all retired as captains: Ted Starzynski, Lew Haynes and Roger O’Neil. O’Neil also survived a sinking: he was the assistant ship’s surgeon aboard USS JUNEAU and on 13 November 1942, after night action off Guadalcanal, found himself sent by small boat to USS SAN FRANCISCO. SAN FRANCISCO was barely afloat, her keel had been broken, and the bridge had been hit by enemy fire, which had killed Rear Admiral Callaghan and mortally wounded the captain of the ship, Captain Cassin Young, the man O’Neil was operating on in the admiral’s cabin. And at that point JUNEAU was hit by a torpedo and blew up, resulting in the death of all but 10 of the 690 man crew; O’Neil lived.
As for Capt. Haynes and INDIANAPOLIS, they had, as you will recall, just delivered “Little Boy” – the bomb dropped on Hiroshima – to Tinian, and were returning to Leyte in the Philippines when they were torpedoed. The ship was struck by two torpedoes, forward of the bridge, on the starboard side, about 15 minutes past midnight on July 30th. The ship sank in 12 minutes, but still some 900 men, of a crew of 1,196 ended up in the sea, about 720 miles west-south-west of Guam, and 560 miles east-north-east of the Philippines, in about 18,000 feet of water, in 12 foot swells, the moon ducking in and out of clouds, the water they were in covered in several thousand tons of fuel oil.
He had been sleeping when the torpedo hit and it threw him out of his bunk. Fire chased him out of his stateroom, the second torpedo threw him to the floor and he burned his hands. He stumbled around in the smoke and fire, looking for a way out. I recall him saying that he ended up in the wardroom and fell into an easy chair and said that it felt very comfortable and for just an instant he thought about remaining there. He knew he would die but “that was okay.” Then someone fell on him and he “woke up” and stood and began to find his way out. He crawled through a porthole on the starboard side (the ship was listing to starboard and the water was getting closer), climbed a ladder up onto the deck, then as the ship continued to list and sink bow first he simply walked into the water and began to swim away in the darkness.
He ended up as the senior officer in what turned out to be the largest group of men, perhaps 200 or more. Many were wounded, most of those died in the first 24 hours. As he told the story, he went from being a doctor to a coroner, swimming around, testing to see if someone had died – he would gently tap the eyes – if the eyeball itself didn’t respond, the man was dead. He would pull off the dog-tags and slide the chain over his arm. Other men would then pull the life vest off and push the body away.
Eventually, he had so many dog-tags on chains hanging around his arm they began to pull him down. The other sailors had to wrestle them off his arm, and he fought them, trying to keep the dog-tags, and he spoke of the trauma of letting that last little bit of his shipmates slip into the sea.
Perhaps the most remarkable piece of the story was when they were finally picked up, after 4-and-a-half days in open ocean, and they ended up in and around large rubber rafts dropped out by the seaplane. Several dozen men were huddled on and around the rafts. There was a large container of fresh water, but just one small cup to drink from. So, he began passing out drinks, one at a time, passing the water past men who hadn’t had any fresh water for, at that point 110 hours. He noted that each man passed the cup along, waiting his turn, that not one man cheated.
Eventually, 317 men were pulled from the sea, though one sailor died shortly after being rescued. Only 316 survived the ordeal.
The next time you watch JAWS, remember Capt. Haynes, and remember the others, those ferocious intellects; Haynes, Starzynski, O’Neil, Stephen Ryan et al, who went on to save the lives of literally thousands of wounded Sailors and Marines and Soldiers and Airmen…
Copyright 2023 Arrias
www.vicsocotra.com