(PM Modi of India, possibly uttering a trope. Photo voiceonline.com)
No, we are not going to turn this morning’s edition of the global gallop into a chance to flack the new book. It is, in our defense, a contributing factor that channels India’s current events across other accounts of social dysphoria. Our new book is “A Little Traveling Music.” It features an episode of travel just after the turn of the century in New Delhi’s Chandni Chok- the Moonlight Square.
On that trip we had arrived with nearly a full day of ‘comp time’ based on the rigors of travel from Dulles to Delhi. The time off was intended to permit some recuperation before official meetings commenced for a few days. Accordingly, we attempted a brief trek through the History of India in six or seven hours. Part of the rickshaw rides connecting them included a stop at what was said to be India’s oldest spice market and a visit to the Square.
It is a bustling place featuring an iron fountain that would be unremarkable in many old cities. This one is a little different, since it was where a British officer personally executed the two heirs to the Peacock Throne after the death of their father, ending the line of succession. He had their bodies displayed until they became a threat to public health.
So, contextually, on this morning some of the old Indian images are floating around. They have sparked curiosity about some of the news we have been hearing. There is a general election in progress in India- the largest one in the world. That led to a discussion on The Patio about demographics and change, and the furor over Prime Minister Modi’s purported anti-Muslim tropes uttered in the middle of the country’s election campaign.
There is a larger discussion of demographics and change in the world of humans worth having. Population trends in Asia and the West suggest that the pressures of modern life have contributed to diminish the size of families. Taken on a national basis, one by one, the nations of Europe are in decline. In North America, the US is hovering just below replacement rate. Even vast China reports a slight population decrease for the first time, the start of an immensely long downward slope. There is a dynamic inherent in these statistics. There are changes in progress that have less to do with ideologies and religious zeal and more about the impact of sheer numbers.
We think of India as a mostly Hindu nation. It was forged out of the British Raj into a subcontinental Hindu-majority nation flanked (at first) by a Mostly Muslim Pakistan divided into “East” and “West.”
The statistic of the moment in the our parade is that there are 200 million Muslims within the ostensibly unity of the subcontinent, and hence the controversy over his remarks. India is home to one sixth of the global population, and with the demographic changes, has surpassed China in size with nearly 1.5 billion inhabitants. last year. The commentary on demographic issues- notably family size and inbound migration- is taken as a trope to “other” largely Muslim groups. These include refugees from residual Imperial populations in former colonies like Burma and Bangladesh.
The details devolve rapidly, including allegations that jewelry traditionally bestowed in Hindu wedding ceremonies might be banned should PM Modi be deposed.
The Al Jazeera network reports two complaints about PM Modi’s tropes have been filed, demanding legal action, so some of the situation resonates with our own political circus. There are other similarities. Like the US Hatch Act, India’s election code bars parties and politicians from engaging in speeches and campaigns that “aim to perpetuate religious or caste differences.”
The results of the election will tell us more about centers of thought and gravity. But the visceral nature of the politics inherent in change. PM Modi is the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). His party, and others allied in the Hindu-majoritarian ethos have characterized the country’s 200 million Muslims effectively as “outsiders” or “infiltrators” whose family size will outnumber Hindus.
Like many popular theories this is erroneous and migrant populations are subject to the same negative pressures on parenthood. Indian government data indicates the Muslim fertility rate is declining most rapidly in all communities, down almost by half since the Millennium.
In this new multi-polar world, Asia looms as a conflict area with an expansionist China. India has a capable military and direct regional interest in how things work in the zone of influence. We will be trying to keep track of that, and the demographics that drive the messaging as it unfolds. The numbers suggest there is a lot of that activity to come.
Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com