How much trade is carried by ship? Perhaps as much as $20 trillions worth as it turns out. On any given day there is more than $100 billion worth of international trade moving on the world’s oceans. In 2021, the last year with complete figures, 11 billion tons of goods, 80% of all world trade by volume, to include 851 million containers (TEUs), were moved by sea. US trade carried at sea exceeds $2 trillion.
And the Babel Mandeb? The “Gate of Lamentation” that marks the southern end of the Red Sea? Some 17,000 ships transit the Babel Mandeb in 2020 (last year I could find numbers), 6.2 million barrels of oil per day.
It all goes normally with little fanfare and very little worry. Despite talk about piracy and all that sort of thing, 99% of the world’s oceans are quite pirate free. Nor is there any real impending threat. Nor has there been one since the end of World War II. The world has enjoyed 78 years of unbroken freedom of the seas. It is an achievement unparalleled in history except for several centuries when Roman ships traveled around “Mare Nostrum” – literally “Our Sea” as the Romans referred to the Mediterranean Sea.
And why have the seas been so “free?”
Because the US Navy made it so.
But, Freedom of the Seas is not a given.
Consider the Red Sea again: things have been a little exciting in the Red Sea of late. There have been multiple attacks by Houthi rebels against shipping in the Red Sea, missiles, drones fired at various ships, small boats attacking other ships, helicopters landing a party of soldiers on one ship and seizing it.
Meanwhile, the US Navy and several allies, have been doing what Great Power navies have done for 200 years: they are maintaining sea control. The Royal Navy did it in the 1800s, the US Navy took up the mantle after World War I. And kept the sea lanes open. USS Carney and USS Mason, demonstrating some valuable American technology, have swatted down a number of missiles and drones.
It is worth noting that that other great power with a large navy – Communist China – is not keeping the sea lanes open. I am sure they have lots of excuses why, perhaps beginning with “The US is doing a fine job” (though I doubt they’d be so complimentary), and ending with “we’re busy terrorizing Philippine fishermen.” But the simple fact is that they aren’t. And anyone who thinks that they will fill in if the US Navy were to step aside is delusional. They won’t.
For 200 years freedom of the high seas has been guaranteed by only 2 navies – the Royal Navy and the US Navy. No one else has ever shown the least predisposition to do anything of the kind – unless the US Navy or the Royal Navy started it.
So, when folks start wondering why the US needs a navy first and foremost among its services, and why we, as a nation, need to fix our shipbuilding, they need to begin – not with joint warfare or needs of all the combatant commanders or any of that sort of thing, they need to begin with strategic presence and sea control. And from there they need to consider trade and US economic stability, shipping our grains and goods to people around the world. All that happens – at low cost – because of Freedom of the Seas.
And Freedom of the Seas is what the US Navy does.
As for what we should do about the Houthis, there is a tried and true answer. Send one of our aircraft carriers into the Red Sea and let them fly several hundred strike sorties against Houthi bases along the Red Sea coast. Pound them into rubble. This is where it would be nice to have a big gun ship or two: “park it” off the coast and let it pound the targets for a few days. Let it be seen by people sitting on the beach. After the targets have been pounded for a few days, land a battalion of Marines and have them sweep through the area.
Then leave. And leave the area a smoking ruin. Do not repair it. It’s broken and we aren’t paying for it. Sail back over the horizon. If the Houthis do something else, return.
The distinction here has to be crystal clear to all involved: if they want to mess about with their own country, fine. But if they come out to sea, if they come out into the international waters and threaten to upset the apple cart, they will be punished. Once they are punished, we will leave. If they then behave, we won’t return. If they act up, we will return and repeat.
As for other folks who want to stir the pot, nations like Iran, that might send ships to help, etc., once this has started they get one warning: withdraw. If they don’t, sink the next Iranian ship that heads that way. Don’t make it anything more than that: a clear signal to keep away.
This is not subtle; subtle signals always are misread but the other side. But it is clear. And again, we aren’t going to invade, not in any grand sense. We will act to keep the sea lanes open and safe, if we need to we will conduct a raid or two. The message is clear: Behave. And leave the sea lanes alone.
It’s what great power naval forces do.
Copyright 2023 Arrias
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