We were immersed in a last review of the new book yesterday. It drew us back to some old wanderings in some of the areas in conflict today. We smiled when we recalled that stroll across the Temple Mount and the scowls of armed young men around the Dome of the Rock. The hiss of eager Palestinian vendors issued in welcome from behind shuttered shops to do business despite the ban on trade by local insurgents.
They were people trying to get by, and we remember the discord behind the walls.
Yesterday, we were occupied in a review of those old events in a new context. Since 1979, we have had occasionally personal relations with the state of Iran. The news that came in the late afternoon was the biggest in all the years we have followed the issue.
First heard was that the President had been called back from Delaware to attend the crisis. Some 50 drone missiles had been launched from Iran toward Israel. Later estimates increased that number to hundreds.
Hearing it was a shock. It was the first such unambiguous attack from a regional state against another.
Of course things are a little blurry since proxy warfare has become common for deniability. Hamas aggression started the current conflict in Gaza, right? Israel directly struck Iran’s generals in Syria. Was this the start of a massive response to that event or something else?
The bottle of single-malt had been around various points in the circle a few times. Reports were that the Israelis were shooting down some of the incoming drones. There was no other apparent coordinated activity, and after the initial shock, it appeared the world would not end last night. The remnant of the bottle was left with the interns and the Salts went to bed.
This morning started with sunshine and a report left in large format on a tablet device next to an empty bottle on the Porch. It said the Israeli air defenses, supported by British and American air forces had destroyed 99% on the incoming drones and the only reported casualty was an Arab-Israeli girl.
Impact was characterized as “token,” which is where analysis begins today about what is next for tomorrow. It is a new landscape on an old problem. This attack seems to meet the criteria of an “act of war.”
What comes next will be how the players interact on a new and more intense landscape. Iran is making a statement. Now the question is what sort of retort is going to come.
The Iranians already set their side of the table on that. The chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces said that while this weekend’s drone and missile attacks have ended, his “regime will stage a “much larger” attack if Israel launches a counterstrike and target U.S. bases in the region.”
It could be that this attack was sufficient to satisfy Tehran’s need for response to the attack in Syria.
Miscalculation on that could mean general war. The bottle on the Patio table may be empty, but thankfully liquor sales on Sunday have been restored and we intend to be ready for what is coming next.
Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
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