The French Frigate Alsace is on its way home today; she is out of missiles.
It would almost seem a modern version of a Pyrrhic victory.
Plutarch relates that Pyrrhus was a descendant of fleet-footed Achilles, king of the Molossians, later king of Epirus, then Macedonia, and after that, tyrant of Syracuse. He was above all an extremely capable general. As you’ll recall from high school history, Pyrrhus won a 2 day battle over the Romans in 279 BC, but the battle was so bloody that afterwards he noted, to quote Plutarch, “that one other such victory would undo him.”
Thankfully, the French lost no sailors. But this defense… Last night the Israelis, US, RAF, French and Jordanian forces shot down a host of incoming drones and missiles. Accounts vary as to the final count, but initial reports (later reports will differ both as to numbers and success rates) suggest the attack was on the order of 200 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles. Of those, the current claims are that virtually all of the drones, 25 of 30 cruise missiles and virtually all of the ballistic missiles were shot down, and casualties on the ground in Israel totaled one teenage girl wounded.
Costs haven’t been released but one estimate placed the Israeli cost alone at $1.1 – 1.3 billion in air defense missiles. The most expensive missile in the Israeli system cost just under $4 million, which suggests that they fired in excess of 300 missiles. How many did the US and UK and French and Jordanian fire? More to the point, what is the time to replace those assets; not the cost, the time, that’s the real question. And how many more engagements can the Israeli, US coalition win before they’re out of missiles?
Which leads to a grander question, one that applies to Israel, Ukraine, and, in the end, Taiwan: what is ground truth?
In each of these three theaters the US needs to know what ground truth is.
Consider Taiwan. The US views keeping Taiwan free and independent as in its vital interests. The real goal here is to deter a war with Communist China over Taiwan while keeping Taiwan free. The US doesn’t want the war to go hot (note, we are in fact in a Cold War, whether we like it or not.)
We want to deter war with China. But do we have adequate conventional forces to safely assess that we can deter war with China over Taiwan, or for that matter, over the South China Sea? This is where the issue arises of Pyrrhic victories: the number of missiles and bombs and the readiness of our ships and aircraft and submarines – and all the other issues that make up an assessment of the readiness of our forces to meet a given threat. What is left? What do we need? How fast can we get it? Do we have enough combat-ready ships – with enough missiles – to sustain a presence in the South China Sea and East China Sea that will safely deter China? And do we have a plan to expand our conventional forces in the near future to ensure we maintain that deterrence?
And can the US reasonably deter China with conventional forces? Or do we need to deploy theater nuclear weapons again, however that might be done? And then how do we make certain China knows? And the US needs to remember that China sits at or near the center of each of these other problems.
Consider Ukraine. If you listen to the releases from the Russian Ministry of Defense – or the Ukrainian General Staff – their side is winning. To give one recent example (this happens to poke the Ukrainians in the eye, but both sides are doing it), the Russians have a 10 to 1 advantage in artillery fire and a 5 to 1 advantage in manpower and that is why they are advancing around the city of Avdiivka.
But, a review of available data showed the Russians had a 7 to 5 advantage in manpower, and a 3 to 1 advantage in artillery fire; hardly the overwhelming force one normally wants for an attack.
While both sides release fantastic statements on enemy casualties; reasonably objective assessments show those numbers to be more fantasy than reality. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians want to fight on, and the Russians do as well.
We need someone to take a very hard look at the real numbers; certainly our intelligence community has the real casualty figures, has the real ammunition stockpile figures, has the real production figures, has the available manpower figures, has the real force readiness figures.
And then answer some hard questions: What are the real manpower losses and what is the real, available manpower pool? What is the likely ammunition stockpile – given all the other requirements that the US faces – that Ukraine will be able to draw from? Given those real numbers, and other US commitments, can Ukraine win? Can Ukraine push the Russians out of Ukraine? Or is Ukraine involved in an effort that will in the end destroy Ukraine?
Freedom of navigation and the Red Sea: What is needed to end the Houthi regime? That the US Navy cannot defeat what in essence are shore batteries of a 4th rate power, and has no plan to do so, is unconscionable. Yemen needs to be blockaded – air and sea, and the Houthis need to be erased, and some admirals need to be fired.
Iran: The unraveling of 45 years of containment policy of the Iranian problem needs to be addressed before Iran has nuclear weapons. The US relations with the Arab States have decayed dramatically over the last two years. But the demonstration yesterday of the long-term threat posed by Iran should make recovering US Mid East policy at least a little easier. Iran needs to be contained, the Iranian nuclear weapons program needs to be destroyed. The US needs the Arab world to join it in this effort.
The US also needs to recognize that we have had three decades of poor-to-miserable decisions in defense policy – it’s time to fix that.
The US has some hard choices to make, but it needs to make them now, while there is still time to deter, based on ground truth, and not wait until the next round of missiles heads down range. We don’t want to wait until we run out of missiles.
Copyright 2024 Arrias
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