An East Asian country: threatening its neighbors while making snide and outrageous comments about the US and our allies, building an ever larger nuclear force, ruled by a man who sees no limits to his powers and who has, in the last several months, replaced all his senior military leadership to insure loyalty to him.
Not North Korea or Kim Jong Un; the country is China, and the leader is President Xi.
Over past decade or so the People’s Liberation Army’s Navy and Air Force have expanded at a prodigious rate; the navy on a path to 500 ships in the next decade or so; the air force introducing several new fighters and a new bomber in the last 5 years; the Army introducing new tactical ballistic missiles; and the strategic forces introducing a new ICBM just last year.
China is attempting to extend de facto control over the entire South China Sea and control transit of that sea; they’re now using the same language to justify action in the South China Sea towards the southern islands of Japan.
In June, China moved several army units into border territory between India, Bhutan and China, attempting to establish de facto control over a small piece of land called the Doklam plateau, whose ownership is disputed. The plateau itself is meaningless, its position is not. At the southern end of Tibet’s Chumbi Valley, Doklam would give China operational and tactical overwatch of the Siliguri corridor, the strip of land that runs between Bhutan and Bangladesh, connecting the bulk of India with eastern India. Also known as “the Chicken’s Neck,” the corridor at it’s narrowest is less than 20 miles across.
There’s no other real reason for China to be interested in the plateau; its sole purpose is to be able to threaten India. Thankfully, India called China’s bluff and as of last week China seems to have withdrawn their personnel. Beijing backed off; but they’ll be back.
At the center of all this is President Xi, who’s also preparing for the 19th National Party Congress this fall. During the Congress it’s believed Xi will take steps to establish himself as president for life…. However he colors it, his intent is to retain and expand his power. While paying lip-service to democracy, Xi is after power.
Meanwhile, North Korea detonated another nuclear weapon. Early estimates placed it in the 100 kiloton range (5 times as powerful as the Hiroshima bomb; a 100 kt weapon would create complete destruction in a circle about 3-1/2 miles across). China did manage to condemn the test and call for the North to adhere to UN resolutions.
The fact is, China routinely issues proforma statements of concern, yet in remarkable demonstrations of moral equivalency where there is none, also has repeatedly called for the US and North Korea to take steps to reduce tensions, in particular calling for the North to end missile tests (testing offensive weapons) while insisting the US halt the deployment to South Korea of THAAD (a defensive system). The Chinese foreign ministry also commented that it would be unwise for China to cut off North Korea’s oil supply or even close the border as it might cause a confrontation between China and North Korea.
In other words, more of same.
Yet, North Korea is following a path that, at the minimum, Beijing passively endorses. Given the breadth and depth – and speed – of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missile development programs, the Chinese had to have been complicit. We’ll never know the full extent of China’s support, but there can be little doubt that China has been involved, and that a nuclear-armed North Korea is part of Beijing’s plans for flexing their power and containing the West.
Beijing is playing aggressive geopolitics. North Korea and North Korean nuclear weapons are part of that game. We must deal with North Korea. But to do so, we must realize that they’re a proxy for China in a much bigger “game.”
There’s much to do, and a number of specific programs (missile defense on the one hand, hardening critical infrastructure, to name two) need to receive additional funding. But we must begin by recognizing that we’re in a very real confrontation with a determined China.
President Xi is pushing and pushing hard. A de facto cold war has already begun between China and the West. It’s time for us to recognize that fact and act accordingly.
Copyright 2017 Arrias
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