(The NATO logo and the flags of its member states.)
So, this awful month is finally coming to an end. There were record low temperatures this morning, the major airports in the 20s under partly cloudy skies. They tell us the winds will back around to the south, and the gentle breezes will bring the afternoon to near 50.
Still cold for this date, and in the stiff breeze yesterday, as cold as any of the long winter.
With the focus on the weather, and the missing jet, and the Russian adventurism in what used to be Ukraine, I would be willing to bet good money that you have not been following Syria. I can understand why coverage of the continuing slaughter is on the media’s back burner here- our policies and red lines did not seem to make much sense, nor the backing of rebel forces who are more closely aligned with Iran’s al Quds force or al-Qiada franchises.
It is a mess. The reporting is all there, though, and as of this morning, opposition forces are claiming that Syrian planes have bombed rebel positions in President Assad’s home coastal province of Latakia. Jihadi-allied forces have been making gains for a week.
Following the start of their push in Latakia last Friday, rebels from several Islamic groups, including an al-Qaida-affiliate, seized a border crossing with Turkey.
I don’t blame us for tuning this out. There does not appear to be a great set of options, short of making an internal conflict another discretionary American war for which there is no enthusiasm.
Ditto the Russian occupation of Crimea. Mr. Obama is in Rome this morning, talking to the Pope, but he took the opportunity to make some interesting remarks in which he compared Mr. Putin’s actions to that of his own opposition back home. I thought that was sort of an odd comparison, but fair enough.
The thing I find most troubling about all this is that there is no realistic alternative to the hand-slap of sanctions against an assertive and expansionist Czar. There is real reason for concern for other adjacent states that once were under the Soviet boot-heel. They urgently wanted membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization once the wall was down as an insurance policy against the resurgent Russian Bear.
I am an old Cold Warrior, so I have been watching the situation with morbid fascination. Ukraine got the cold shoulder about potential membership in NATO for a variety of perfectly good reasons. But there are other member states that may be a little nervous about whether or not Article 5 of the NATO charter means what it says.
There has been a fair amount of discussion about that provision of late, and it has only been invoked once- the day after the 9/11 attacks on the United States. The article states plainly “…an armed attack against one or more of the Allies in Europe or North America shall be considered as an attack against all.”
You can also understand the new members of the NATO alliance may wonder if the organization really has the collective will to start World War III over some little slice of Poland or Latvia.
Realistically, I do not think Mr. Putin has the stones to go all out on the Reconquista of the Soviet Empire, though I can understand that a reasonable Romanian- I am sure there must be some- would not be as equally convinced.
But let’s take a moment here, and consider for a moment that Article 5 is not the sole life-line of the former Soviet satellites. After all, the only state to have actually exercised it was America, for goodness sakes. Think what might happen if Turkey exercised it?
Bear with me. The Turks have got some problems domestically. Loyal NATO member, the government of Prime Minister Erdogan has been tinkering with the secular nature of the modern Turkish state. Lately, he and his allies appear to have been caught with their hands in the cookie jar. Domestic problems can cause leaders to try to divert attention with external threats- and the war next door in Syria is already complex enough.
(Actual video capture of the shoot-down of a Syrian MiG-23 by Turkish F-16s last Sunday. The jet was infringing on Turkish air space, according to the Turksih General Staff. Photo AA).
Mr. Erdogan used a campaign stop in the northwest of Turkey, the PM said: “A Syrian plane violated our airspace. Our F-16s took off and hit this plane. Why? Because if you violate my airspace, our slap after this will be hard. I congratulate the chief of general staff, the armed forces and those honorable pilots… I congratulate our air forces,” he said proudly.
We have had tail-wagging-dig-events here, or events that certainly seemed to resemble the movie plot of the same name. But there is also tit-for-tat options available for embattled president Assad in his take-no-prisoners civil war.
We all acknowledge the region is a complex place. The Bosnian adventure certainly convinced me of that- but the amalgamated wreckage of what was the Ottoman Empire has curious things left over. As I sometimes joke with Turkish acquaintences, “The big problem between Turkey and Greece is the Greek capital,” I say grandly.
You know the punchline. The real capital of Greece is Constantinople. Hahaha. The Turks rarely laugh.
Anyway, nothing is just what it seems to be in the region. As Russia still clings to a German town in what is now Poland, The Kaliningrad Oblast, formerly the German city of Koenigsburg, remains as Russian as it was when the guns fell silent in 1945. It is in Poland, once German, and still Russian soil, strange as that seems.
The Turks have a plot of sovereign soil in Syria, and it is recognized by treaty and fact. It is the Tomb of Suleyman Shah located on the Euphrates River southeast of Aleppo. It is dedicated to the memory of the grandfather of Osman I, founder of the Ottoman Empire, and a significant enough place that even Ataturk could not give up. Although it is smaller than a city block, it is a sovereign exclave of the Republic of Turkey.
(Turkish troops guard Suleyman’s Tomb. Normal complement is about a dozen soldiers- though who knows today? Image Wikipedia).
Ataturk struck a deal with France, which occupied Syria after WWI, to have the tomb declared Turkish in perpetuity. I suppose the Syrians could argue that the deal with a European Colonial Power is null and void, though to date they have not.
What they could do- or the rebels- is attack the Turkish soldiers who defend the tomb.
The argument goes that a threat to the Tomb is a threat to sovereign territory. It could be a causa belli for Mr. Erdogan to declare war on Syria, and along the way, invoke Article 5 and present NATO with a non-negotiable request for support.
Oh, sure, this may seem wildly unlikely, and I agree. But in the context of what is happening with Russian expansion toward Ukraine (a non-NATO state) and the proximity of NATO members to the Russian border- Poland, the Baltic State, Romania- there is increasing uncertainty about the reality of Article 5.
Suppose Mr. Erdogan requested support under the NATO Charter. I expect there would be nervous laughter- but if NATO did not make a firm response, what signal does that send to Mr. Putin, and to the former Warsaw Pact members who fear him?
Unintended consequences abound here. I doubt if anyone is actually thinking about this- except perhaps Mr. Erdogan- and perhaps Mr. Assad and his ally, Mr. Putin.
Stay tuned as we play out the politics of the 19th century in the terra incognita of the 21st.
Copyright 2014 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
Twitter: @jayare303