(Speaker Boehner castigates the President in a press conference shortly before the President promised to make everything OK with justice for all. The Speaker later decamped to Ramparts for a beverage and a smoke. Photo UPI)
The moist heat has returned to Washington. I have the door to the balcony open, and the breath of the sultry heat to come as morning rises makes my hair bushy and my shirt cling to my chest and arms. I am puzzling this morning over the pirouettes the dancers are playing downtown.
Sorry about this, but I feel a little like a mongoose looking at a Cobra in rapt fascination. I mean, this is a big deal, right? Isn’t it?
Based on the reports this morning, the warring sides are still far apart on the debt ceiling, but have to come to some sort of agreement by the weekend.
It is quite surreal, and there is plenty to watch, since this show takes place in a three-ring circus. In the one under the dome of the Capitol, the House is formulating a “Cut, Cap and Balance” bill, which would:
CUT
Total spending by $111 billion in FY 2012. The savings are harvested from freezing non-security discretionary spending below 2008 levels, which saves $76 billion, a $35 billion cut to non-veterans, non-Medicare, non-Social Security mandatory spending and keeping defense at the level requested in the President’s budget.
CAP
Total federal spending would be scaled back based on a glide path that would take Federal spending from 22.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) next year down to a hair below 20% by 2021.
BALANCE
Require the passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment before raising the nation’s debt limit.
It is going nowhere, of course, since Mr. Reid in the Senate will not countenance it. Besides, a constitutional amendment like the Balanced Budget element would require two-thirds majorities in the House and Senate, and ratification by 38 States before Saturday, and the President has said he would veto it anyway.
So it is just political theater, and a considerable distraction that will push negotiations to the brink, but still provide political cover for the Republicans who have signed the Norquist pledge to not raise taxes.
Poor Republicans. They had the temerity to actually say what they were going to do. The President’s grand plan remains a mystery. And, of course, taxes are going up at the end of next year anyway with the expiration of the Bush rates, so I am bemused by the whole thing.
The Speaker was smoking and drinking at the Ramparts pub in Shirlington last night according to my sensitive HUMINT sources, after castigating the Administration in a press conference at 3:15pm, shortly before I decamped to Willow. Old Jim is still out with broken ribs, and John-with-an-H is going to undergo surgery on Thursday.
His doctors have advised him to stop drinking soon, and as you might imagine, he is not a happy camper.
The phlegmatic bureaucrats have been directed by the White House to prepare for a shut-down of the government.
There is, naturally, a cascade of actions that would keep the interest on the debt paid while curtailing less vital functions of government, though that could impact our pension payments, and social security. I will be interested to see if that comes to pass. I forget what I pay out of my pension on the first of the month- I guess I will have to curtail payment to the Ex of part of her maintenance. I wonder if the Republicans are aware of that?
Trust me, the last thing you want is her angry.
I will promise to make it up later. The Government seems to be able to do that, so why not the rest of us?
What was on the table before the Cut Cap and Whatever show started was a budget plan that would slice a “record” $33 billion from current spending levels. 33 billion from a budget of nearly $3.83 trillion with a federal deficit this year predicted to be around $1.56 trillion.
It is mind boggling, isn’t it?
There is no meeting at the White House this morning, as far as I can tell, since they have to get the charade of the Cap, Cut Whatever out of the way.
The White House yesterday reaffirmed Mr. Obama’s smoke-and-mirrors pledge to cut four trillion out of the budget from unspecified reductions while “supporting economic growth and long-term job creation, protecting critical investments, and meeting the commitments made to provide economic security to Americans no matter their circumstances.”
That will be a pretty good trick. I guess both sides have to get it out of their systems before they can actually do their jobs.
Informed observers have said that “a shutdown still appeared less than likely at this point, as neither side would benefit if their inaction closed everything from passport offices to bankruptcy courts.”
One commentator chose a sports analogy to calculate the odds. “Odds remain above 50 percent that the government will not shut down on Saturday, though it is close to a jump ball.” I would like to see the President face off with the Speaker on that one, one-on-one, and leave the rest of us out of it.
I wonder what the company will tell us to do, if there isn’t any government to talk to next week. Go into the office and look at our phones?
Copyright 2011 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com