I have a project that is dizzying in complexity and daunting in scope. I have had a hard time getting my arms wrapped around it, and the weather has just been too darned nice to do anything except savor the end of summer.
I have been delaying putting pen to paper- or digits to digital prose- on an essay intended to showcase the dimensions of the threat to the homeland.
Like you, I follow the news cycle through week, and there is some pretty incredible stuff happening. In fact, there is so much of it that it is hard to keep straight in my mind. I thought I would take a stroll through the elements of what constitutes a threat to the homeland.
Then:
There is no question that natural disaster can be the number one threat to homeland security, and always will be. 2005 saw the nightmare of Hurricane Katrina, and its devastating impact on the Gulf Coast in general and New Orleans in particular. Despite the nine years since a major tropical storm came ashore, storms like Sandy demonstrate the consequences of poor building practices and zoning when confronted by the power of nature.
In 2009, the economic meltdown had everyone concerned. There was a real threat to the homeland, but it was purely self-inflicted. No mass public disorder resulted, though times were tough and public anxiety was high. Many homeowners were underwater. Life savings were wiped out.
As unemployment soared to 10.2%, spendthrifts became tightwads, a new age of austerity dawned, and the era of easy money lurched to a close. With the financial system coaxed back from the brink, the Obama Administration injected massive sums into the sagging economy with stimulus packages and incentives like the wildly popular (if myopic) Cash for Clunkers program. But even as experts grasped for green shoots amid the wreckage, the debris continued to pile up.
Overseas, two wars continued to rage- three or four, if you include Abu Sayef in the Philippines and the tendrils of al Qaida elsewhere. The Sunni Awakening in Iraq’s Anbar Province suggested that the insurgency could be defeated and the central government of Iraq could be stabilized.
“Mowing the grass” against the Taliban seemed to be having a positive effect in the war there.
So, with our attention split between the economy and the wars overseas, the threat to the homeland seemed to be something for the economists and the Stimulus on one hand, and the force of arms and good tactics on the other.
Then came Christmas Day over Detroit, and a man wearing a bomb as underwear attempted to bring down Northwest Flight 253 over the city. The act was not successful, but it presaged the arrival of IEDs right here in America. Something fundamental was changing about the nature of the threat.
Hacking and identity theft were becoming also becoming common, though on the whole, the cyber world offered incredible opportunities to improve commercial activity.
Today:
Citizen Doe arises and logs on to check the bank account information and pay bills on line. Doe is startled that the balance in the checking account is zero, since the information on the ATM card was skimmed with log-in and pass-code keystroke theft.
A massive compromise of identity and credit card information on a mature dating site has been disclosed. Doe is identified as a member, and an intimate partner is intensely concerned. A bitter dispute rises as both parties prepare to go to work.
While driving, the air conditioning in the Doe SUV begins to behave erratically, and the cruise control flicks on and off as though someone was tampering with it.
At lunch, a personable Chinese individual approaches with a business proposition that reveals a curious familiarity with the details of Citizen Doe’s personal background information.
Unsolicited calls regarding medication for a high blood pressure and anxiety begin to come on the phone. Both conditions are real and had only been discussed with Doe’s physician.
The commute home is disrupted by protestors who link arms across an interstate highway, and others have established a camp in a public park across from the office building.
Court proceedings have sparked large-scale unrest in a large city nearby. Law enforcement presence is beefed up and check-points are established to maintain good order.
A long-shuttered mining complex has been emitting water contaminated with heavy metals. In attempting to mitigate the flow, a government agency inadvertently releases three million gallons of waste water contaminated with arsenic, cadmium and lead as well as other toxic elements into the river system. The toxic spill affects waterways of municipalities in the states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and the Navajo Nation.
A halfway house for undocumented immigrants is established in Citizen Doe’s neighborhood. Some have criminal records, but the city has Sanctuary laws in place to protect them from deportation.
Across town, a man attacks citizens, apparently randomly, with a hammer and a knife. Public safety appears in jeopardy. Scattered shootings across the area suggest a sniper is also active in the area, targeting citizens apparently at random.
Unsettled about the apparent hacking of the bank account, Citizen Doe checks his credit score and discovers several new accounts have been opened in Doe’s name, including a mortgage. Doe’s identity has been stolen by persons unknown.
Overseas, a terrorist state announces that it has achieved the capability to launch a nuclear device and explode it over Kansas, creating an EMP event that could disable every integrated circuit or microprocessor within line of sight of the blast. If programmed to detonate for 240 miles in altitude, such and event would cover most of the Continental United States.
Another group announces it’s intent to strike an urban area with a dirty bomb, time and location to be determined.
Unsure of the reliability of the Doe vehicle, the citizen decides to take public transportation, where the platforms have been cleared due to discovery of an unattended backpack.
One of Doe’s cousins has been on travel, and the Boeing 777 on which they were traveling has vanished without explanation.
A local coal-fired electrical generating plant has been shuttered in compliance with tougher air pollution limits before renewable energy from wind and solar farms have come on line. No natural gas plant has been built to backstop the erratic renewable energy sources and the grid is under stress, creating rolling brown-outs across the region.
A local power substation is targeted by gunfire, with shots being fired into the radiators of giant transformers, disabling but not destroying them. Two manhole covers were removed, and communications lines were cut. The utility says damages came to $15.4 million and is a single point of failure for a large part of the city.
Local advocates announce the intention to have a free-speech in which controversial cartoons will be displayed. Police brace for possible violence.
SCADA systems at a nearby hydroelectric plant are hacked, causing floodgates to open, flooding nearby residential areas and eliminating back-up power that further stresses the grid.
Citizen Doe is watching the news with growing alarm. It is December and a cold wave has hit the city. Then the lights- and the heating- go out. Doe hopes there are batteries for the flashlight. And that there is a sleeping bag handy.
__________________
With the exception of the EMP threat, all these things have actually happened this year, and you will note that I haven’t advanced the thesis that it is all related to jihadi self-radicalization.
I am not sure if the North Koreans have actually stated their intention to loft an EMP device toward the homeland, but they have announced that they can nuke Hawaii, right?
It is not that any of it was implausible in 2009- we were talking about the use of nukes against us in 2002 when I was still in the government, but the dimensions of the problem have metastasized. I don’t know, but the pace of things seems to be accelerating.
I am not even sure what direction to be looking any more. I am feeling a lot like Citizen Doe these days. How about you?
Copyright 2015 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com
Twittter: @jayare303