If you are only recently awake, we have the scene-setter for you about what is to come from the sky. You have been warned about scene-setting messages and large furry animals that serve as weather-guessers, and we are going to do it anyway. Punxsutawney Phil, a noted Groundhog, did not see his shadow this morning. So, there it is: an early Spring is on the way!
We could sign off at this point, since that is the word from Pennsylvania and the Groundhog is correct in his forecast almost 40% of the time. We should note this prediction is considered unusual, since it accounts for massive clouds passing overhead from the two Pineapple Express weather systems to bring clouds to obscure the solar disc. That is unusual, since recent years have had clearer skies. We have our own ritual for this day.
We only watch it once year, but the Harold Ramis film “Groundhog Day,” starring Bill Murray, is a fun romp through our minor mid-winter meteorologic ritual. Bill’s character in the movie is forced to relive Groundhog Day in a small Pennsylvania town endlessly. Over the course of the story he manages to transform himself from oaf to selfless benefactor as he learns every detail of life in the town. And fixes them all. The folks in the black top-hats- still all male as best we could tell- gathered at Gobbler’s Knob just after dawn this morning and announced that the furry rodent had not seen his shadow.
We are not sure about the combination of moving masses of visible puffy white vapor or the reaction to clouds by large rodents. At The Knob, they have doing this for 137 years. We honor their service in this is a fraudulent but fun festival. The observation of this particular day in Winter coincides with hope that the malaise of coinciding with Candlemas. It is a part of popular culture among many Americans and it centers on the idea of the groundhog coming out, being illuminated against the ground, and the Winter will drag on.
But not indefinitely. Like most Groundhog days, crowds gathered at Gobbler’s Knob the morning to hear Punxsutawney Phil make his prediction. He needs some help with that, being mute, but it is all part of the offering. Size of the gathering? There are estimates of 10,000 people who attended the ceremony, eager to see the end of the Cold Season. That leaves us pretty much where we were last year. Or every year, since believing the inverse of the mammal forecast would be accurate 60% of the time, rather than today’s 40% guess.
On another hand- there were twenty thousand of those in the crowd- the nominal length of this Winter is six more weeks of chilly breezes, ending in the middle of March
Phil did not see his shadow, so that means an early spring is likely. The narrative of a warming world is reinforced as we divest ourselves of the energy that keeps us going. Phil largely favors predicting six more weeks of winter, so this is unusual. We would normally expect the ground to thaw and decorative plants begin to raise moist tendrils to the sky from whence the moisture came in the middle of March.
The Groundhog says earlier, a week or more? The end of this curious February, the month that is either longer or shorter than usual. You can see from the folks at USA Today who have tried to capture where we are, moving through the void of space at around 17,000 MPH. For those who insist on the proper alignment of orbital mechanics, regardless of Phil, the Spring will arrive in DC on the 19 March equinox, concluding a seasonal duration of almost 93 days.
So, we will live with that prediction of an earlier period of warmth and good growing cheer. And to a degree, we have more Science to marshal in support of Phil’s annual animal wisdom. Once every four years, our 365-day rotation around the sun sweeps up the fragments of other Groundhog days and expands our current month of February to a total of 366, instead of the normal 365. It is proof Phil is more astute on calendar dates than he is normally credited
We are currently in the bonus year of 2024. We call this a “leap year” based on the modest expansion of the calendar and the requirement to jump over it. We will add one day to the end of this wintery February and therefore extend the year by one. We are pleased the year is cooperating with the rodent. Since leap year happens every four years, our last leap days were in 2020 and 2016, and the next leap year will happen in 2028.
You will note what happened in both those leap years. One involved an election and the other an election and a plague. We naturally are inclined to think things will return to something resembling normalcy for the end of winter in four years.
We hope to be around for that, although we recognize that the next long February will have some of us approaching the average age at which life-expectancy statistics tell us half will be gone.
We will take an early Spring this year and add Phil’s blessing for growth and green life. The forecast is optimistic, and considering the other events coming at us, we can use it. Thanks Phil, from all of us!
– Vic
Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
www.vicsocotra.com