As you might expect, talk about the current hotspots of conflict have led to discussion of where this ball of crisis is going. Some of us think it is like President Xi’s Belt-and-Road Initiative. With luck, we will be able to avoid an atomic exchange between the various Nuclear Powers or almost Powers in mass destruction. We took a poll out on the Patio and decided the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction might be unpleasant. So, we could leave it at that, with this gentle, clockwise assessment of the information on the slide above.
This seems to have started with Czar Putin’s special military operation in Ukraine. That has now dragged on well into the second year of combat, cold and wet in trenches of mud. There used to be some novelty to it with some of the professional and popular publications having special press sections that read the same way each day. It is an uncomfortable reminder of how horrific some of our human behaviors can be.
That does not mean the idea of peace is not appealing to people, but there are those who apparently seek rapid and violent settlements of old grievances in places like Gaza. As the clockwork movement of crisis continues. You can see that the North Koreans have grown restive and already have ballistic missiles capable of striking the United States. The Kim Family takes pride in their performance. We fought the Northerners a few decades ago, and it is possible we will do so again.
Continuing around the clock are more elements of chaos. President Xi of the PRC has not articulated his reaction to the recent elections in Taiwan, but it seems certain part of it may include preparations to subdue the island state and bring the entity once know as Formosa back into One China. It can be a challenge, as residents of Hong Kong could tell you right now.
The rest of the trouble revolves around the Persians, or Iranians if you prefer the more modern version. Some of the Writer’s Section at Socotra House has been dealing with that ambitious activity by the nation known as the largest supporter (and instigator) of terrorist activity around the world for a while. Some of us saw it in person in 1979, an unpleasant exercise into ugly nationalism and hostage taking and bubbling religious strife in the Sunni-Shia religious struggle. The slide at the top of this Daily is now days old, reflecting last week’s wild swings of hope and despair between the participants.
You will note we did not highlight the unpleasantness of the Houthi sect’s Red Sea rocket attacks on merchant shipping. Weapons stocks are getting low even for those who were well-armed in previous conflicts. We will see how that goes. But the thing that strikes us is that most of these global hotspots were a little cooler in temperature even during the Cold War. The reality this morning is people are talking about using nuclear weapons in a non-threatening manner.
Victory in that struggle may have been exaggerated, and there may be some issues remaining in the strring of trouble around the world’s girth. We have not talked seriously about the actual use of WMD to settle rifts in one of the three Religions of Peace.
What concerns us naturally is that we would prefer to give peace a change, and let this electoral cycle pass without a world war. We have to admit that the chances of achieving that goal is a little less than it has been since the Cubans thought Russian WMD was a food idea.
Whatever is coming, we hope you can join is in a prayer for Peace. It worked the last time, you know?
Copyright 2024 Vic Socotra
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