Our usual “All this stuff is going on” holds for this week, avoiding the tiresome responsibility to actually have to talk about it. Of course, some of the issues that will affect our society are clearly already in progress and worth a medium effort.
Things that are developing: Ukraine is a still a big one with the balance seeming to tip Russia in the two eastern Oblasts. There is some feeling that could be the basis of a settlement Putin could take and stop the fighting, but the US is adding some weapons systems to the Ukrainian inventory (M270-A1 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems) that the Russians feel “could hit their Homeland.” Our folks have explained it is only a medium range system and we are watching carefully nothing is pointed in a medium-threatening manner.
The Russians have announced a ‘Red Line,’ and it is possible that the US and or NATO could be drawn in with the prospect of a general war in Europe. Whatever happens, the reconstruction of Ukraine when fighting stops will cost dozens of billions of dollars. With that, there are new rumors about Mr. Putin’s health that could delay decisions while increasing the risk of bad ones.
Also in from Europe: The World Economic Forum met at Davos for their annual private-jet show and denunciation of those of us still driving SUVs. Implications? Support to the World Health Organization and possible subordination of US Public Health institutions to the UN’s World Health Organization. That is reportedly supported by the Administration. Also, the US Dollar as world base currency was under attack. The Davos crowd favors moving toward a digital currency as a hedge against US inflation. That will naturally increase pressure against the dollar’s value at home and abroad.
So that is one side of the world. On the other, China may chose to exploit US over-commitment in Europe and is pursue a “two ocean” strategy that could disadvantage us. Despite the QUAD talks (US/AUS/Japan/India) there is a new Green government in Canberra and a new Minister of Defense rumored to have PRC ties which could impact the US submarine deal. Despite ten other nations rejecting increased China ties, an agreement with the Solomon Islands for Chinese access to Guadalcanal has been set. The Chinese want that for the same reason we fought the Japanese for it- strategic access to Australia. All is not well in Beijing’s internal affairs, since in addition to Zero-Covid woes and Monkeypox there are remaining money problems related to real estate speculation.
For all of us who live and commute here, moving around will be more expensive. The Ukraine complication to world fertilizer sources and Russian oil pressure on Italy, Greece and Hungary could rupture NATO solidarity and add pressure on supply chains and food. Our gas prices hit a new record on Monday. There will be workforce hardship for those who have even medium range commutes. Supply chain issues- baby formula aside- could cause food shortages at double the price by October.
Our Attorney warned us to steer clear of partisan issues, which is a challenge even to creative writers since everything has a partisan shade. The November election has a certain imperative all its own in this first month of sultry summer. June could bring a Roe v. Wade decision from SCOTUS and street protests. The fight over gun laws and school safety are another area of controversy to get public focus off the key Inflation, gas and food issues. Given recent polling, there could be unexpected developments to shift voter focus over to other new crisis areas that can be blamed on something else.
That is what is happening in an energetic week only halfway gone. There is a sentiment around the Fire Ring at Refuge Farm that says the farmer’s already paid for what they planted, and won’t get anything back until the crop is harvested in the Fall. We don’t know yet what the months between will do. Some say we could see food prices double. We are pretty sure America will squeak by even then, but the people least able to afford a decent meal now may consider it a bit of a cloud come the Fall.
And we are in about the best shape on earth to deal with it. There could be a lot of trouble elsewhere. At least they are out of MRLS range, right?
Copyright 2022 Vic Socotra
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