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What\u2019s the probability Ted Williams will get a hit at his next at bat? And while we\u2019re at it, what\u2019s the probability that Mario Mendoza will get a hit at his next at bat?<\/p>\nWhat\u2019s the probability Ted Williams will get a hit at his next at bat? And while we\u2019re at it, what\u2019s the probability that Mario Mendoza will get a hit at his next at bat?<\/p>\n
Ted Williams – Marine fighter pilot and Red Sox outfielder – had a lifetime batting average of .344 – 7th highest all time, and an on-base percentage of .482 – highest all time, 9 points ahead of number 2, a guy named Ruth. Mario Mendoza, had a lifetime batting average of .245 and holds the distinction of lending his name to a term for defining the line between the acceptable and unacceptable (the Mendoza Line).<\/p>\n
In a world where every sports statistic possible has been parsed and re-parsed, it would seem the probability of getting a hit at the next at bat would be something that the \u201cexperts” could produce. If you listen to them, it sometimes seem as if they do know.<\/p>\n
Do they? No.<\/p>\n
As it turns out, the actual answer is .5, as in .50000 – for Williams. And for Mendoza. And anyone else. Statistically, it can’t be broken down any further. You can get into all sorts of analysis: did the batter get a hit during his last at bat? Is he facing a lefty or a right-handed pitcher? What inning is it? Is it raining? How many on base? And on and on and on, seemingly ad infinitum. But in the end, the answer remains Ted (or Mario) either will or will not; .5 and only .5 – not a fraction in either direction. And no \u201cexpert,\u201d no matter what he claims, can get more accurate than that.<\/p>\n
When I was working at US Strategic Command, we would occasionally be visited by teams of nuclear physicists from the big labs: Lawrence Livermore and Los Alamos. Several times per year they would arrive at the command at the same time – by design. The 4-star would sit in on the ensuing discussion (the Admiral called it \u201cdueling physicists”), in which the physicists – all of whom were literally the top scientists in their fields – would debate issues concerning the nuclear force. In the end progress was made, but it was slow and often “painful.\u201d<\/p>\n
In short, even a field as heavily studied and as narrowly defined and \u201cscientific\u201d as nuclear weapons was subject to a great deal of debate among experts.<\/p>\n
In fact, in the overwhelming majority of cases where an expert stands up and says: \u201csuch and such is so,\u201d there\u2019s a fair number of other experts yelling that he\u2019s wrong. This is as true with nuclear weapons as it is with meteorology, medicine, or economics. And every other science.<\/p>\n
I have on my shelf a book on logic written by a Jesuit priest more than 100 years ago and in it the author makes a wonderful distinction, one that made perfect sense when I first read it, but 40 years later appears to me to be true genius, words more akin to holy writ: Science is found in labs and text books; but once you take the science out of the lab and apply it in the real world, it becomes as much art as science.<\/p>\n
Yet, we\u2019re told, seemingly every day, that we need to leave the big decisions to the experts; expert economists, expert doctors, expert eco-scientists, etc., etc., etc.<\/p>\n
But if that\u2019s so, why are you encouraged in your own health care to always seek a second opinion on major issues? And sometimes a third?<\/p>\n
Why ask more than one carpenter for an estimate, and a plan, to fix the roof?<\/p>\n
Why do you take the car to a second garage to get another appraisal of what\u2019s wrong? And another estimate of what it will cost to fix it?<\/p>\n
And while, we\u2019re at it, why do you vote?<\/p>\n
In fact, the experts are often wrong. As Richard Feynman – one of the honest-to-God smart guys of the 20th Century – noted: \u201cScience is the belief in the ignorance of experts.\u201d If Galileo had simply said: \u201cWell, the experts all agree, the earth is the center of the solar system, so what I\u2019m seeing is obviously wrong,\u201d he might have gotten into a lot less trouble. But, then he would have been wrong, just like all the “experts.”<\/p>\n
Most egregiously, this idea that: \u201cexperts\u201d really need to be \u201ctrusted\u201d has spread into the idea of government. Yet, rule by experts is really just one small step away from the Divine right of Kings. \u201cYou must never question the King,\u201d has been replaced with \u201cYou must never question the Doctor.\u201d<\/p>\n
Now we have governors standing up and throwing the prognostications of some doctor at us as if we must accept it all as divine truth. Even as every week we come upon another finding that re-defines everything we\u2019ve been thinking for the last 3 months.<\/p>\n
Leading to this: last week the editors of the major Tidewater paper published an editorial defending the governor\u2019s \u201cgo slow\u201d plan and stated that: \u201cWe [the citizens of the Tidewater] need to earn the governor\u2019s trust\u201d before we go any further.<\/p>\n
What?<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s get a few things straight here: we don\u2019t work for him, or for his \u201cexperts,” they work for us. We don\u2019t need to trust them, they are required to trust us. We shouldn\u2019t bow and scrape before earthly kings – or earthly doctors.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, suicides are up – apparently way up, but the numbers are hard to find. Treatments for cancer are way down. The incidents of domestic violence are up, as are rates of depression – as unemployment continues to rise.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, \u201cEmperor\u201d Northam continues to pontificate, like some Dear Leader from some \u201cPeople\u2019s Republic.\u201d Instead of pronouncements, how about 1) following your own rules, and 2) show us your plan to fix the problems this shutdown has caused.<\/p>\n
Really, maybe it\u2019s time for our \u201cDear Leader\u201d to earn our trust.<\/p>\n
Copyright 2020 Arrias
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What\u2019s the probability Ted Williams will get a hit at his next at bat? And while we\u2019re at it, what\u2019s the probability that Mario Mendoza will get a hit at his next at bat? Ted Williams – Marine fighter pilot and Red Sox outfielder – had a lifetime batting average of .344 – 7th highest […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19533","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arrian"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19533","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19533"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19533\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19536,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19533\/revisions\/19536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19533"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19533"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vicsocotra.com\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19533"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}