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Since 2015 Senators McCain and Graham have called for more US troops in Syria. First they called for 10,000 troops, then 20,000 and then 50,000. Now, the numbers have climbed to 150,000.<\/p>\nSince 2015 Senators McCain and Graham have called for more US troops in Syria. First they called for 10,000 troops, then 20,000 and then 50,000. Now, the numbers have climbed to 150,000.<\/p>\n
To be clear, this isn’t about the additional troops Secretary Mattis sent into Iraq and Syria (or into Afghanistan); Secretary Mattis has clear, limited goals in Syria and Northern Iraq \u2013 working with Kurds et al to destroy ISIS, and it won\u2019t require 10,000 more troops. Though, there\u2019s a cautionary note: no one can fully account for everything in war. General Maxwell Taylor was adamant he understood exactly what was happening in Vietnam — until suddenly he didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n
(Consider, as US presence in Afghanistan moves toward its 16th year, we not only see Taliban endurance and Al Qaeda resilience, we now have Chinese army patrols in the Wakhan corridor in eastern Afghanistan\u2026)<\/p>\n
So, if these two Senators want many more troops in Syrian, a few questions need answers.<\/p>\n
First: what\u2019s their desired end state? Defeating ISIS isn’t enough; ISIS will be defeated. Then what? Which fanatical Jihadists replace them is unknown, but one will emerge. Meanwhile, presumably, the large US presence in Syria would remain to stabilize northern Iraq and northeast Syria, and engage in nation-building.<\/p>\n
Nation-building has a bad reputation, and should: it’s exceptionally difficult. Advocates point to Europe and the Marshall Plan as proof it\u2019s possible. But Europe in 1945 was different: populations were highly literate, there were strong common social and political ties to western thought, and democracy had strong roots (even Germany, emerging from 12 years of Nazi rule, had been a constitutional monarchy for 100 years).<\/p>\n
Japan was different, but the Japanese \u201crenaissance\u201d (the Meiji Restoration of 1867) adopted many of the forms and mores of European (and particularly British) society. And, in all cases, social standards meant that virtually the entire population accepted the surrender. There were no insurgencies, and there was little organized crime or violence directed at the US; the people acquiesced in the surrender and were willing to obey and take direction.<\/p>\n
And, these countries (and Korea in 1953) had suffered massive destruction during WWII. Rebuilding was imperative; there would\u2019ve been no survival for much of the population if the nation-building had not been thoroughly embraced by the people.<\/p>\n
In short, these countries were ideal for nation-building.<\/p>\n
Yet it still took several decades for these societies, operating with substantial US presence, to re-emerge as fully functioning societies. Japan, which recovered most rapidly, was fully functioning just a decade after the war’s end. But, Japan benefited from having 1\/3rd the casualties Germany had, as well as having an extremely homogenous population with a high degree of national cohesion.<\/p>\n
How does that compare to Iraq or Syria? Iraq has three major populations: Shia Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. Shia Arabs – closely tied to Iran \u2013 constitute perhaps 60% of the population, Sunni Arabs 20%, and Kurds 15%. Just the Sunni – Shia spilt, the great fault line in the Islamic world, makes nation-building difficult to imagine. Additionally, the Kurds have viewed themselves as separate from the rest of the Arab world for 1,000 years. Any plan must address the growing Kurdish identity and it\u2019s impact on power-hungry President Erdogan in Turkey.<\/p>\n
And Syria? Do the senators envision \u201csolving\u201d the Syrian problem, of forcing Assad to leave? Or would they call for partitioning Syria despite Russian presence and support for Assad? What cost are the Senators willing to pay for that?<\/p>\n
Syria is the antithesis of a cohesive population \u2013 Syrian Arabs, Palestinians, Kurds, Turks, Assyrians, Armenians; 74% Sunni, 13% Shia, 10% Christian, 3% Druze. Some argue that only a dictator could unify Syria. Perhaps not. But nation-building wouldn\u2019t be easy.<\/p>\n
Before the US precipitously left Iraq in 2011, before Iran moved forces into both countries in 2013, before Russia returned to Syria in 2015, this might have been conceivable, if we\u2019d had a clear end state that made sense. But now, both Russian and Iranian forces are present in significant numbers, and Assad\u2019s survival appears quite certain.<\/p>\n
So exactly what achievable, desired end state justifies tens of thousands of US troops?<\/p>\n
Syria is in a horrible condition. But rushing in without first answering some hard questions would only make it worse. Let\u2019s be clear on what we expect, what costs we are willing to pay, what risks we\u2019ll accept, and exactly how all this will benefit the US before we go any further.<\/p>\n
Copyright 2017 Arrias
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