Editor’s Note: Arrias is the pen name of a real human being with superior analytic and communications skills. It is not me. The thoughts and opinions expressed are his, and not necessarily those of Socotra House LLC, the Department of Defense, or the Hong Kong Fireworks Co., Ltd. His commentary is provided for the exclusive use of Socotra House readers.
Thanks!
– Vic.
North Korea: A Final Thought
Begin with this: Kim Jong Un, the murderous dictator of North Korea, must be told that if he attacks South Korea, or if he detonates a nuclear weapon anywhere outside the borders of North Korea, we’ll wipe his regime off the planet, we’ll wipe out his military, and most especially, he will die. That message needs to be sent, in that language.
That said, what’s next? Sanctions haven’t worked; China isn’t helping and isn’t going to help; negotiations and agreements haven’t worked; and we certainly don’t want to pay the horrible cost of war, especially a nuclear war.
Is there any option that might peacefully end the situation, after 64 years of uneasy, crisis-laden ceasefire? Various estimates have suggested that a war in Korea would result in more than 1 million dead (to include most of the 25,000+ US troops in Korea), and the total cost would easily exceed $1 trillion. And that was before the North had nuclear weapons.
As North Korea’s nuclear arsenal grows, those numbers will climb. And soon, other countries will be involved, as the North continues to develop its missile forces along with its nuclear arsenal.
So, is there any other option? A friend asked me that very thing last week. The answer is: “Yes. But it’s an answer that would require everyone to take a deep breath and then swallow hard.”
Simply put, let Kim Jong Un “Win.”
What Kim Jong Un (and his father, and his grandfather) wanted was to rule a united Korea. Okay, let’s do that.
Make Kim Jong Un the president emeritus for life of “Korea” (a unified Korea), give him a pile of money (let’s say $10 billion a year for life), give him two brigades of security forces, three or four palaces, and make him the ceremonial head of Korea until his death. Ambassadors would present him their bona fides, he would preside at major public ceremonies, perhaps he’d attend UN General Assembly meetings. Maybe give one member of his family a permanent seat in the Senate.
Kim could legitimately claim that he was responsible for the re-unification of Korea. He would have accomplished his family’s dream, accomplished what his father and grandfather were unable to do, even though they had the full support of China and the Soviet Union. And, Kim would have a position of great honor and respect, President Emeritus of Korea.
In exchange, the nation is unified, Seoul assumes actual control over the entire peninsula, the ROK economy moves north, ROK businesses move into the north and free market economics, which has made the ROK an economic powerhouse, replaces the madness of the world’s most perfect command-driven economy. The North Korean military is demobilized, the nuclear weapon program is passed over into the hands of the ROK government, and we begin a transition to a unified, peaceful, free Korea.
No one would like this. (And presumably no one is going to accept this.) But it’s perhaps the only path that would prevent a war AND allow a controlled economic transition that wouldn’t destroy the south’s economy.
It would be very difficult. And the people of the Republic of Korea would need to agree. And the actual implementation (beginning with trusting Kim Jong Un) would be horribly complex and difficult and emotionally and culturally painful. And the Chinese would object – strenuously.
And it would be especially horrible to see Kim “win;” to, in essence, get away with it.
But it would end the threat of war, and it would unify the peninsula, and it would provide the social and economic relief the people of North Korea need, and it would end this 67 year war – the real longest war in American history.
The options are all bad, and all run what are now becoming a fantastic risk: attacks with nuclear weapons. Buying off an enemy is rarely a good idea. But it is an idea. And, maybe, it would work.
But short of that, one thing is clear: Kim Jong Un poses a great, and growing, risk to Korea, Japan and increasingly, the United States. We’ve been able to maintain an uneasy armistice for 64 years. That may soon change. We need to be ready to defend our interests. But we might also want to examine all the options.
Copyright 2017 Arrias
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