16 March 2006

Short Term Profits

Washington- March roared in like a Lion, but by the end of the month the Cherry Blossoms around the Tidal Basin were in full bloom . . .and the budget process and debate over the Administration's conduct of what they are calling The Long War was blossoming, too . . . the President's poll rating are the lowest of his Administration and Senate Democrat Russ Feingold is calling for censure . . . meanwhile, the strain is on the parkway Patriots who scoop up business associated with defense and homeland security contracts . . . some industry giants are trying to position themselves away from reliance on DoD, since the gravy train of supplemental appropriations is going to come to an end at some point and the Pentagon will have to deal with an effective budget cut of hundreds of billions of dollars . . .  I'm in the hunt for in-year revenue opportunities, and hearing of a big contract win in Europe bolstered our quarterly forecast and may take some of the pressure off my job . . .  I'm seeking resources to continue our Public Safety Wireless communications initiative and support sales of some hot products, including the means to defeat Improvised Explosive Devices, mobile high-capacity self-forming networks, a cell-network-in-a-box, and plastic armor . . . the latter may fundamentally change the way military equipment is built, not to mention commerical auto applications, and could be both a near-term and enduring revenue stream of its own, if we can capitalize on it . . .  our  approach is to harness commercial solutions to government problems . . . it seems to be resonating in the public safety, defense and intelligence communities . . . and several initiatives could bear fruit that will mature as the Cherry Blossoms fall from the trees . . . it had better, or I may be headed to that double-wide in the country before summer to wait out the bird-flu and the first nuclear strikes from the Iranian weapons programs mated to the new long range North Korean rockets . . .  insiders say the current generation of boosters limt likely targets to Hawaii, Alaska and part of the West Coast . . . Washington pundits say for long term investment: “Upwind and to the West is the way to be . . . Virginia is in, and Maryland suburbs are out for the post-attack phase . . .”

Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs)

The scourge of IEDs continued to take a heavy toll in Iraq and Afghanistan . . . these devices have caused most of the U.S. combat casualties, and murdered hundreds of civilians . . . IEDs accounted for 407 of the 846 Americans killed last year in Iraq . . . and attacks doubled in 2005 (to 10,593 from 5,607 in 2004) . . . Government spending has soared to over $3.2 billion in the kitty to defeat the IEDs . . . the current rate of defeat is approximately 40%, and means of detonation include garage-door openers, infrared beams, pressure switches and timers . . . a more troubling trend has emerged, with some of the IEDs apparently manufactured in Iran, and featuring lethal shaped-charge explosives . . . SECDEF Rumsfeld appointed retired Army General Montgomery Meigs to take over the beefed-up Joint IED Defeat organization . . .  . Current defeat technology is being provided by 80 contractors on some 100 technology initiatives which include microwave blasts, chemical sensors and RF jamming devices  . . . several initiatives are under evaluation now, using different phenomenologies, including the means by which the insurgents notify local residents of impending attack . . . also in the campaign is a wider approach to OSD Decision-makers . . . and over on the Navy side of the Pentagon, Chief of Naval Operations Mike Mullen announced that Rear Adm. (lower half) William P. Loeffler is being assigned as deputy director, United States Strategic Command Center for Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction (SCC-WMD), Fort Belvoir, Va.

Public Safety Communications Initiative Moves forward

The message on a unified public safety communications system is gaining traction across the government as the realization that police and fire departments need to be able to talk to one another nation-wide only four years after 9-11 . . . recent legislation forcing recalcitrant broadcasters to vacate spectrum in the 700 Mhz band by 2009 will provide the means to deploy commercially-based network solutions . . . pilot programs are moving ahead in Phoenix and Peneles County, Florida . . . in Arizona there is a clear tie-in to other pressing border security problems using spectrum owned by speculator Aloha Communications, who bid big bucks to own the rights to spectrum that will be used by others . . . the concept of moving toward an integrated voice and data solution is compelling and the District of Columbia is interested in demonstrating an EVDO approach in the National Capitol Region, which could be a prototype for a national system . . . even traditional Land Mobile Radio providers like Motorola and MaCom are moving to position their P25 solutions as part of the ultimate boradband data solution . . . Motorola has hired more than a dozen new personnel to market their solution in the Washington arena . . . the competition is becoming aware that our commercial approach is the way forward, and competition is that market segment will only become more intense . . . resources are required to keep the message in front of the government customer set . . .

McNamara Tapped As Top Information Sharing Official

Thomas E. McNamara was nominated by the President to assume the information-sharing job at ODNI, which was vacated when incumbent John Russack quit last month under pressure . . . Russakc's “military background” was deemed inappropriate . . . McNamara is a State Department veteran, as are many of the new circle surrounding Ambassador Negroponte  . . . whose appointment is expected to be announced soon, wll be under immediate pressure to produce a plan to knit together the information networks of the federal government's sixteen intelligence agencies and link them with state and local intelligence efforts . . . the former  Three months ago, the former 9/11 commissioners gave the government a grade of "D" for its information-sharing efforts . . . McNamara is expected to have the cooperation of ODNI CIO Dale Meyerrose in his efforts . . . but he is a retired general officer who expects results . . .

Maritime Domain Awareness Summit

A business summit was held in March to strategize ways to get in front of the DHS mega-project of Maritime Domain Awareness, the sea component of Secretary Mike Chertoff's Secure Borders Initiative . . . insiders in Washington say that had not Hurricane Katrina pushed everything else into the background, the porous border situation would have been the number one crisis confronting the Department . . . and DHS still has to take dramatic action to try to mitigate a continuing embarrassment . . . the exchange of ideas from across the labs helped form a unified approach to a potentially very large government acquisition program . . . a novel concept is establishment of a “virtual company,” forming a team of thought leaders and industry partners who once operated the Navy's $20 billion undersea acoustic sensing system known as SOSUS . .  much of that system remains in place, and with improved back-end processing, could form a major MDA component . .  one thing is certain: without utilizing legacy systems, the challenge confronting the government will not be a manageable one . . . using past performance and a smart team, industry could capitalize on experience to win new business in a lucrative new business area . . .

Research and Development Work Migrating Overseas

Drawn by a huge and inexpensive talent pool, U.S. companies are pouring money into research and development in China . . . its a trend that promises to broaden the country's huge role in the global economy . . .The total number of foreign-invested R&D centers in the country has surged to about 750 from 200 four years ago,  . . . And in a survey of multinationals published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, China was by far the most frequently cited location for R&D expansion, well ahead of the U.S. and third-place India, China's chief rival as an emerging innovator . . . Still, China's growth as a global R&D hub faces some constraints, including the notoriously weak protection of patents and other intellectual-property rights. . . . That has encouraged some foreign companies, fearful of risking their trade secrets, to keep more cutting-edge research out of China . . . But others have rushed to expand the scope of their development efforts there, including Motorola, IBM and Proctor & Gamble, which have all expanded R&D or spun off major product lines to Chinese companies . . . I

Next Month: Fed's New Trillion Dollar Debt Ceiling could mean short-term profits


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